Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Markel Group Inc (MKL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1949.92-0.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
112.20 → 118.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MKL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
free cash flow yield | The company has beaten earnings estimates recently and has a strong free cash flow yield of 9%. | Intact | free cash flow yield falls below 7% | Free cash flow yield: 7.41% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20267.41 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MKL is a financial company with a mixed, watch-stage long-term thesis rather than a clear turnaround or durable-growth story in this evidence. Its signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable after fresh earnings, while recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes MKL as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and a justified priced-in tag. This suggests limited evidence that the market is pricing in unusually fragile expectations, but the overall value assessment is neutral.
Near term, recent earnings lifted company momentum, but the evidence also notes misses across recent quarters and a downward trend in earnings surprises. Management priorities around underwriting profitability, core-segment organic growth, and capital discipline remain watch items, while a litigation filing and CEO transition add context without enough detail to judge their effects.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether execution improves and the recent earnings signal persists. Sector conditions also matter: rate cuts could weaken the financial-sector backdrop, while continued strong results from CB, PGR, and TRV could support it; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
For a 1 to 3 year view, MKL combines peer-relative valuation support with weak recent performance and unresolved execution questions. The thesis remains in a watch state, with future results and sector signals as key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
executive leadership stability |
| A supporting condition in Markel Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is no major unexpected executive departures. |
| Under Pressure |
| unexpected departure of CEO or CFO |
Qualitative: CEO/CFO stable, but COO departed (Feb 2026) & Chairman retiring (Sep 2026) COO Michael Heaton departed Feb 2026; Chairman Steven Markel retiring Sep 2026 with named successor. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
earnings per share (EPS) level | A primary condition in Markel Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $116.49 in FY27. | Broken | EPS falls below $107 in FY26 or fails to reach $116.49 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
total company revenue growth | A primary condition in Markel Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.9% CAGR over next 3 years. | Broken | revenue growth falls below ~2% per year over next 3 years | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$116.96 → $118.50 · observed estimates
$15.90B → $15.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $116.96 | $15,900,503,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $119.59 | $15,243,944,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $116.96 | $15,900,503,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $119.59 | $15,243,944,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $116.96 | $15,900,503,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $119.59 | $15,243,944,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $119.59 | $15,243,944,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $117.02 | $15,897,537,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $114.01 | $15,243,944,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $114.75 | $15,912,580,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $114.75 | $15,912,580,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $114.75 | $15,912,580,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $113.94 | $15,929,380,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $113.94 | $15,929,380,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $114.01 | $15,239,001,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $112.20 | $15,261,134,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $112.20 | $15,522,567,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $112.16 | $15,261,501,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $112.69 | $15,261,501,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $112.72 | $15,261,501,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $112.72 | $15,523,234,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $118.50 | $15,523,234,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $118.50 | $15,616,374,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $118.50 | $15,616,374,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $118.50 | $15,616,374,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $118.50 | $15,616,374,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $118.50 | $15,616,374,333 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.