Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MKS Instruments (MKSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$176.82-9.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
17.55 → 17.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MKSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin stays near 47% | A primary condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~47% gross margin. | Intact | gross margin falls below 46% next quarter | Gross margin: 47.7% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~47% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 202647.699929 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical technology equipment business with a growth and execution case, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and the confidence level is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MKSI is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 0.53 premium to peers; model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, with two recent earnings beats, higher revenue, and improved gross margin and operating income; second-quarter revenue was above the high end of guidance. Management is delivering on semiconductor growth and operating discipline, while debt progress is mixed; the next-call guidance remains a key near-term risk, despite a low estimated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in semiconductor and advanced packaging markets, and on management sustaining profitability gains while managing debt. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup; easier rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business case remains intact, supported by stronger recent results, but elevated risk and mixed valuation signals leave meaningful uncertainty. The key test is whether growth and operating gains continue without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is maintain on-track status for key priorities. |
| Intact |
| management priorities fall off track or miss targets |
Qualitative: Q4 guidance strong, earnings beat Strong Q4 guidance, earnings beats, and positive analyst outlooks confirm management is executing on growth objectives. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows steadily | Net income grew from $62M to $84M. | Intact | net income growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Net income: $236M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income grows at least 7% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Nov 5, 2026236,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 7% per year | A primary condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue: $1.413B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 5, 20261,413,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.22 → $17.62 · observed estimates
$5.56B → $6.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.22 | $5,558,424,047 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.22 | $5,558,424,047 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.36 | $5,582,906,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.36 | $5,582,906,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.36 | $5,582,906,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.36 | $5,582,885,429 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.36 | $5,582,906,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.36 | $5,582,906,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.36 | $5,582,885,429 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.45 | $5,602,971,250 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.45 | $5,602,971,250 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.45 | $5,602,971,250 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.45 | $5,602,971,250 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $17.03 | $5,988,590,360 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $17.50 | $6,100,787,230 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.45 | $5,602,961,977 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $17.50 | $6,100,809,751 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $17.50 | $6,112,751,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $17.40 | $6,097,251,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $17.40 | $6,097,251,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $17.40 | $6,097,251,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $17.45 | $6,098,909,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $17.55 | $6,114,380,811 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $17.55 | $6,114,409,382 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $17.55 | $6,114,410,782 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $17.55 | $6,114,410,782 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $17.55 | $6,114,410,354 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $17.55 | $6,114,410,354 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $17.58 | $6,119,653,211 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $17.62 | $6,127,089,636 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.