MarketAxess (MKTX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$165.61-0.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MKTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2026, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) that is furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Credit volume rose in Q3, but fees per million fell 9%. More fee pressure could limit revenue from higher trading volume.
Worry ifTotal credit fees per million fall more than 9% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal credit fees per million are flat or higher year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: These channels are key parts of MarketAxess's growth plan. Q3 volume rose, while total revenue grew just 1%.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, block trading ADV grows at least 10% and portfolio trading ADV grows at least 20% year over year.
Worry ifEither block or portfolio trading ADV falls year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: MarketAxess launched new X-Pro tools for U.S. credit clients. Higher use would show that the new workflow is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later company update reports that X-Pro use rose and U.S. credit block or portfolio trading ADV also grew year over year.
Worry ifA later company update reports weak X-Pro use and year-over-year declines in both U.S. credit block and portfolio trading ADV.
Why it matters: Services revenue grew faster than total revenue in Q3. More growth would support the plan to earn more outside U.S. credit.
Supportive ifServices revenue grows at least 6% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifServices revenue falls from a year ago in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$9 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,365 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.