MarketAxess (MKTX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$163.38+0.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MKTX — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 29, 2026, MarketAxess Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among the Company, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and Igloo Merger Sub II, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Me…
Why it matters: Increasing dividends shows good use of money and trust in future earnings.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend is set at over $0.78 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.78 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs and more profit.
Supportive ifThe operating income score is above 85.
Worry ifOperating income progress score remains at or below 84.5.
Why it matters: A high operating margin shows good cost control and profit. It shows the company is healthy.
Supportive ifQ3 operating margin is over 41%.
Worry ifQ3 operating margin falls below 41%.
Why it matters: This shows good cost control. It also shows better efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $100 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is under $90 million in Q2 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,365 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows strong demand. It also shows good growth strategies.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth above 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Growth in block trading shows that clients like MarketAxess's services. It shows market trust.
Supportive ifQ3 block trading ADV growth is above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 block trading ADV growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in services revenue shows clients are using new solutions. A drop may mean less demand.
Worry ifServices revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifServices revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher costs could hurt operating margins and profits. This might lower investor confidence.
Worry ifTotal expenses in Q3 increase more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal expenses in Q3 increase 5% or less year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in U.S. credit revenue may show deeper problems in MarketAxess's core business.
Worry ifU.S. credit commission revenue declines worse than 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. credit commission revenue remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in services revenue shows good expansion in key areas. This can help financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 services revenue growth exceeds 14% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 services revenue growth is below 14% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth shows if MarketAxess is expanding its channels. Strong growth means management is doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth outside U.S. credit exceeds 9% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth outside U.S. credit is below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: If block trading ADV stays stable or grows, MarketAxess can get more institutional clients. This is key for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifBlock trading ADV remains above $5.9 billion in Q3.
Worry ifBlock trading ADV drops below $5.9 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows the company wants to return money to shareholders. It also shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.78 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Why it matters: The acquisition will change how MarketAxess competes. Finishing it could help growth and make things work better.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes on schedule in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or regulatory issues. This could push the closing past mid-2027.