Mueller Industries (MLI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.20-0.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MLI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 20, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended September 26, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the third quarter 2026 earnings is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Q3 operating income was $281.6 million, up only slightly from $276.1 million a year earlier. A drop below that level would end the recent year-over-year gain.
Worry ifQ4 operating income is below $276 million, versus $281.6 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifQ4 operating income is at least $276 million and above the year-earlier quarter.
Why it matters: Management said backlogs grew in each segment in Q3. More growth would support its view of healthy demand despite weak home building.
Supportive ifThe next earnings release says backlogs grew from Q3 in each of the three segments.
Worry ifThe next earnings release says backlogs fell from Q3 in two or more segments.
Why it matters: Mueller generated $629 million in operating cash in the first nine months and bought back $278 million of shares. Cash flow below buybacks would weaken this support.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, operating cash flow is below share buybacks for that quarter.
Less concerning ifIn the next reported quarter, operating cash flow equals or exceeds share buybacks.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,295 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.