Mueller Industries (MLI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.74+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
MLI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events. On August 6, 2026 the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 17.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the payment and record dates is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports growth and capital allocation. It shows the company's ability to manage costs and generate cash.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Copper prices affect Mueller's costs and profits. Higher prices can improve margins.
Supportive ifCOMEX copper prices stay above $6.00 per pound for three consecutive months.
Worry ifCOMEX copper prices drop below $5.80 per pound for three consecutive months.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports the company's ability to invest and pay dividends. It's a sign of health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities grows by more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifCash from operating activities grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in revenue growth means a stronger market and better results for Mueller Industries.
Watch forRevenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth in the industrial sector drops below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and management trust. It shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard announces a quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.175 per share.
Worry ifBoard announces a cash dividend lower than $0.175 per share.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows strong cash flow. It shows management believes in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend to over $0.35 per share in Q3.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.35 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company manages costs and pricing. It reflects overall business health.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income stays the same or goes down each year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment is made as scheduled, confirming strong cash flow.
Worry ifA delay or cancelation of the dividend shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.35 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company lowers the dividend from $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifDividend is paid as announced at 17.5 cents per share.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or lower than expected.
Why it matters: Updates on the strategic plan will indicate if the company is on track for long-term growth. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement shares updates on key goals in the strategic plan.
Worry ifManagement talks about delays or problems in carrying out the strategic plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $243 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,233 loss on $10,000 · 22.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.