Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Mueller Industries (MLI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.44-5.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.42 → 4.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations above $79.7 million | A primary condition in Mueller Industries's published investment case. The stated target is > $79.7 million. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $79.7 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MLI is a value-oriented industrial business with a multi-year thesis supported by strong recent financial performance. The thesis state is intact, though two recent earnings misses and moderate risk make near-term execution less certain.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is described as justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to especially high expectations already being built in.
Recent sales and operating income were higher than in the comparable prior-year quarters, and the latest fundamental signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable. Management has completed two core-metals acquisitions, while manufacturing and platform investment priorities have shown limited specific delivery. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and peer weakness raise the risk of another miss or a guidance cut.
The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued performance without one would support the intact thesis. Over the near term, earnings and guidance from ATI, GPGI, and WOR may signal whether the industrial-sector tailwind continues or fades.
Over the next one to three years, MLI’s thesis rests on sustaining strong fundamentals and turning stated manufacturing and platform priorities into clearer execution, while managing near-term earnings risk. The valuation is cheap versus peers, but sector conditions and the next guidance update remain important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Mueller Industries grew revenue 19% last quarter and raised dividends to $0.35 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| dividend falls below $0.35 per share |
Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.35 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 20260.175 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income near $312 million next quarter | A primary condition in Mueller Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >= $312 million. | Intact | operating income falls below $206 million | Operating income: $281.573M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $312 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 2026281,573,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.42 → $4.54 · observed estimates
$5.46B → $5.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.42 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.55 | $5,463,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.54 | $5,773,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.