Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.60+1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MMSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers
MMSI — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Chief Operating Officer — Neil W. Peterson: The Chief Operating Officer position was eliminated and the incumbent resigned for good reason, representing a loss of a senior executive despite the simultaneous external hire.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth and acquisitions. A decline could signal financial strain.
Worry ifFree cash flow generation remains above $24.7 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow generation drops below $24.7 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good integration could help growth and profit. Investors will watch for signs of success.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well and boosting revenue.
Worry ifThere are issues with integration. This slows down expected revenue.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are key for growth. Success here could boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifA new acquisition will add products or reach more customers.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The new COO's work can affect how well the company grows and operates.
Watch forKey metrics get better under the new COO in six months.
Also watch forKey metrics drop or stay the same under the new COO in six months.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,528 loss on $10,000 · 35.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Knowing how the acquisition affects finances helps us see its role in growth. This is important for future earnings.
Supportive ifA press release or earnings call shows specific revenue or profit from the acquisition.
Worry ifNo financial impact details are shared in the next earnings report or press release.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges that affect Merit.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 10%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance may show how profit is changing after the View Point deal.
Watch forManagement raises non-GAAP EPS guidance to more than $4.15.
Also watch forManagement lowers non-GAAP EPS guidance to less than $4.01.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows strong profits and good cost control. It shows operational success.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS is reported at $1.10 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS is reported below $1.00.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost revenue and profitability in the oncology segment. Tracking its impact is key for growth.
Supportive ifView Point Medical will add between $2 million and $4 million in revenue for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue contribution from View Point Medical falls below $2 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It also helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow generation improves to above $30 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow generation stays below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may mean rising costs or inefficiencies. This can hurt profits. Keeping margins steady is important for investor trust.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin was 22% or higher in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin was below 22% in Q3.
Why it matters: Details on who gets awards can show management's commitment to keeping talent.
Watch forAnnouncement of who will get the 2026 Equity Incentive Plan awards.
Also watch forNo news about award recipients or delays in the plan.
Why it matters: Gross profit margin impacts how much money the company makes. A good trend shows good cost control.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves year-over-year by more than 5%.
Worry ifGross profit margin goes down each year.
Why it matters: If the company exceeds this growth target, it shows strong momentum and good management.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target would show that management believes profits will improve.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reaches or exceeds $4.25.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS falls below $4.01.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow would mean the company is managing cash well despite changes.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $80 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $70 million.