MannKind Corp. (MNKD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.06+2.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MNKD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MNKD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, MannKind Corporation issued a press release, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Finishing this will give needed funds for company needs and growth plans.
Supportive ifThe private placement closes on or around July 24, 2026, with funds received.
Worry ifThe private placement fails to close or raises less than anticipated.
Why it matters: Approval would make Afrezza the first inhaled insulin for children. This could open a new market.
Supportive ifFDA approval of the pediatric use for Afrezza by May 29, 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision past May 29, 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding revenue targets shows progress toward the $349M goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $90M or more. This shows recovery from last quarter.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $90M, signaling ongoing struggles to meet annual guidance.
Why it matters: If earnings miss again, investors may worry about future goals.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a loss greater than the previous quarter's miss.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings meet or beat expectations. This shows better financial health.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$241 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,329 loss on $10,000 · 63.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales growth will show how well the pediatric launch is performing. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifPediatric Afrezza sales grow more than 20% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPediatric Afrezza sales grow less than 10% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial losses. Investors look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a smaller loss than last quarter. This means better financial health.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than last quarter, suggesting continued struggles.
Why it matters: Good data could support MannKind's plans and help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 1b trial shows positive results for Nintedanib DPI.
Worry ifTopline data shows bad results or major safety issues.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can help grow revenue and improve business skills.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new deal. This will help the business grow.
Worry ifNo news on acquisitions means growth plans are stuck.
Why it matters: Successful enrollment in the Phase 2 trial could validate the drug's potential and support future growth.
Supportive ifFirst patient enrolled in the MNKD-201 Phase 2 trial by Q3 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment delays push back the start of the MNKD-201 Phase 2 trial.
Why it matters: Good data would help move MNKD-201 to Phase 2 trials. This would confirm the plan.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 1b INFLO-1 study shows it is safe and tolerable.
Worry ifData from the Phase 1b study shows safety issues or serious side effects.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it could help MannKind's performance. This would signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth shows a rise back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care revenue growth continues to slow below current levels.
Why it matters: Furoscix sales growth is key to MannKind's revenue goals. Strong sales support the growth strategy.
Supportive ifFuroscix sales are over $22 million in Q3 2026. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifFuroscix sales drop below $15 million in Q3 2026. This shows weak market interest.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue targets is crucial for achieving the $349 million guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifTotal revenues reach or exceed $175 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenues are below $150 million in Q3 2026. This shows a slowdown.
Why it matters: Approval would boost Furoscix's market potential. It would also help revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe FDA approves Furoscix ReadyFlow. This allows for a market launch.
Worry ifThe FDA does not approve or delays the decision on Furoscix ReadyFlow.
Why it matters: Updates on enrollment will show progress for the nintedanib DPI program. This is an important asset.
Watch forEnrollment of the first patient in the Phase 2 INFLO-2 trial is confirmed.
Also watch forNo updates on enrollment or delays in the Phase 2 INFLO-2 trial.