MOMENTUS INC (MNTS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.89+1.34%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MNTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 106.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
MNTS — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-08-25
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 25, 2025, Momentus Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement with Yield Point NY LLC (the “Investor”), which was amended by a First Amendment to Equity Purchase Agreement, dated as of December 23, 2025 (as so amended, the “Equity Purchase Agreement”). The Equity Purchase Agreement provided the Company the right, but not the obligation, to direct the Investor to purchase up to $50,000,000 in shares of the Company…
Why it matters: Management ties this forecast to payments for signed NASA and defense contracts. The latest reported quarter had just $25,000 in revenue.
Supportive ifBy year-end 2026, reported revenue is at least $10 million. It includes milestone payments from signed contracts.
Worry ifReported 2026 revenue is below $10 million, or contract milestones slip. Revenue stays far below the forecast.
Why it matters: Momentus raised capital in May and June while operating cash flow stayed negative. More share sales could add cash but also add shares.
Worry ifA filing reports another share offering. Or management says cash will last less than 12 months.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report shows at least 12 months of cash runway and no new share offering since June.
Why it matters: The mission tests customer payloads and key spacecraft tools. A successful finish would show that the team can carry out on-orbit work.
Supportive ifA company update says Vigoride 7 completes its planned mission. Its payloads stay healthy and work as planned.
Worry ifA company update reports a major spacecraft or payload failure. Or it says planned mission work could not be done.
Why it matters: Management says the mission is fully subscribed under NASA contracts. A launch would turn those awards into flight work.
Supportive ifMomentus says Vigoride 8 will launch in 2027 with the two payloads awarded by NASA.
Worry ifThe company reports that the 2027 launch is delayed past its stated plan, or that either NASA payload leaves the mission.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$315 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,615 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,067 loss on $10,000 · 90.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.