MS
Morgan StanleyNYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MS has a composite score of 6.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 74.8. Key drivers include unfavorable macro conditions, with a macro score of -7.7, and a sector score of 14.6, indicating mixed trends in the financial sector. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.73 → $2.78 (+1.9% / 30d). 9 raised, 4 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Expand share repurchase programcapital allocationwatchprovisional
7/1: “The Firm's Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Morgan Stanley's Board reauthorized a share repurchase program up to $20 billion. The financials do not yet show the impact of this authorization, indicating limited progress in execution so far.
- 2.Achieve record net revenuesgrowthmixed65% progress
2/11: “The Firm achieved strong financial performance, with net revenues at a record $70.6 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Morgan Stanley reported record net revenues of $70.6 billion, up approximately 14% year over year. This indicates strong financial performance and delivering on the stated priority.
- 3.Increase EPS to $3.43growthmixed65% progress
4/15: “Morgan Stanley reported a record quarter with EPS of $3.43.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Morgan Stanley achieved an EPS of $3.43, reflecting strong execution and financial performance. This aligns with the stated priority of increasing EPS, indicating delivery on this goal.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.29 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 62/100, beta 71/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Expand share repurchase program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Morgan Stanley aims to expand its share repurchase program with a $20 billion authorization.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Morgan Stanley's Board reauthorized a share repurchase program up to $20 billion. The financials do not yet show the impact of this authorization, indicating limited progress in execution so far.
Share repurchase program authorized up to $20 billionNo scoreCEO/CFO:“The Firm's Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-01Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Firm's Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion.”
- #2
Achieve record net revenues
GrowthMorgan Stanley aims to achieve record net revenues, demonstrating strong financial performance.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Morgan Stanley reported record net revenues of $70.6 billion, up approximately 14% year over year. This indicates strong financial performance and delivering on the stated priority.
Net revenues at a record $70.6 billion65%CEO/CFO:“The Firm achieved strong financial performance, with net revenues at a record $70.6 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-11Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-11Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Firm achieved strong financial performance, with net revenues at a record $70.6 billion.”
- #3
Increase EPS to $3.43
GrowthMorgan Stanley aims to increase its EPS to $3.43, reflecting strong execution and financial performance.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Morgan Stanley achieved an EPS of $3.43, reflecting strong execution and financial performance. This aligns with the stated priority of increasing EPS, indicating delivery on this goal.
65%CEO/CFO:“Morgan Stanley reported a record quarter with EPS of $3.43.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-15Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Morgan Stanley reported a record quarter with EPS of $3.43.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MS Morgan Stanley | +6.0 | expensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-15)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-15)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1524d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, Morgan Stanley (the "Company") released financial information with respect to its quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this information is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and by this reference incorporated herein and made a part hereof. In addition, a copy of the Company's Financial Data Supplement for its quarter ended March 31, 2026 is annexed as Exhibit 99.2 to this Report and by this r…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 42
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.