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MOTORSPORT GAMES INC (MSGM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$3.90-0.51%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If sector bellwethers like NTES, EA, and TTWO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting MSGM and other Communication Services names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
- Market cap
- $16.36M
- Employees
- 44
- IPO date
- 2020-12-18
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$2.09consensus
Range $1.06 – $4.78
vs price: +86% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$4.34consensus
Range $4.34 – $4.34
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $3.90, MSGM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 44× p/e (3.6× the 12× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~23% near-term growth vs our ~75% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
43.6x
peer 12.1x · own history —
Premium
3.6x peer
Growth the price needs
23%
our forecast 75%
Our fair value
$3.13
range $1.06 – $8.12
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 75%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
67th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
8th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.headwind-15.3%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$284.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$739.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,816.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSGM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, EA, and TTWO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting MSGM and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MSGM and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If MSGM beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2024-09-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, EA, and TTWO start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping MSGM and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MSGM and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Motorsport Games Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Press Release is deemed to be “furnished” to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.