MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.41+2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
MSM — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-07-17
Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Mr. Dongre: Mr. Dongre is transitioning from his senior role to a Special Advisor position with a defined end date.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company strategy and how it works. This may affect performance.
Watch forThere are positive updates on plans after the General Counsel change.
Also watch forThere are negative updates or delays in plans after the General Counsel change.
Why it matters: Accelerating revenue growth would show MSC's growth strategies are working. It could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: News of the dividend payment shows MSC cares about giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the cash dividend payment of $0.87 per share.
Worry ifNo news about the dividend payment or a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: This guidance reflects MSC's ability to sustain revenue growth. A strong outlook may signal continued demand.
Supportive ifGuidance for Q4 revenue growth is confirmed between 6.5% and 8.5%.
Worry ifGuidance falls below 6.5% for Q4 revenue growth.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal improved business momentum. This could help MSC catch up on its growth priority.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported at 6% or higher in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 6% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A lower margin may show problems in making money as costs rise.
Worry ifQ4 operating margin was below 10.0%.
Less concerning ifQ4 operating margin was above 10.8%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue growth and margin performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 7.8% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5.0% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports MSC's growth plans. Falling cash flow could raise concerns about financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $100M in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $80M in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows MSC's promise to give value to shareholders. Confirmation shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the $0.87 dividend payment on July 22, 2026.
Worry ifThe company cancels or lowers the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports ongoing investments and dividend payments. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion reported at 90% or higher.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 90%.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports MSC's ability to invest and pay debts. This is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains above the current level of 72% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below 70% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy may show changes in financial health or spending plans.
Watch forManagement says the quarterly dividend will go up to more than $0.87 per share.
Also watch forManagement says the quarterly dividend will drop below $0.87 per share.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong margins is key for MSC's profitability. A drop could signal cost issues.
Worry ifGross profit margins remain above 40% for Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margins fall below 38% for Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in key executives can impact MSC's strategy and work. Watching this can show risks.
Worry ifConfirmation of new leaders or changes in key positions.
Less concerning ifNo more changes in executive leadership after Mr. Dongre's transition.
Why it matters: Improving margins would show MSC is managing costs better. This is key for maintaining profitability.
Supportive ifGross profit margins increase by at least 1% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit margins decline or stay flat in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health. They also affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe company announces an increase in the dividend per share.
Also watch forThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change the company's goals and how they are carried out.
Watch forNews of a new General Counsel or key executive that fits MSC's growth plan.
Also watch forMore key executives leaving without clear plans for who will take over.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders and boosts confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.87 per share.
Worry ifNo change or decrease in the dividend from $0.87 per share.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of MSC's revenue momentum. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ4 average daily sales growth was below 6.5%.
Less concerning ifQ4 average daily sales growth was above 8.5%.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop below this level may signal financial weakness.
Worry ifQ4 diluted EPS reported below $1.43.
Less concerning ifQ4 diluted EPS reported above $1.44.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health and management trust. A cut may mean caution.
Worry ifThere was a dividend cut or suspension announcement.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of an increase in the dividend payout.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $235 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,187 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.