MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$110.95-4.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSM — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-14
Regulation FD Disclosure On October 14, 2026 MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.89 per share on the common stock of the Company. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8‑K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes…
Why it matters: MSC set a lower cash conversion range for FY27 than its FY26 result. Meeting the range would support its cash goal.
Supportive ifFY27 free cash flow conversion is at least 80% of net income.
Worry ifFY27 free cash flow conversion is below 80% of net income.
Why it matters: The board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.87 to $0.89 per share. The record date and payment will show whether this declared payment proceeds.
Supportive ifMSC pays the declared $0.89 per share dividend on November 25 to holders of record on November 11.
Worry ifMSC changes or cancels the declared $0.89 per share payment before November 25.
Why it matters: MSC guided to 9.5% to 10.5% average daily sales growth. Meeting that range would extend the recent sales gains.
Supportive ifFY27 Q1 average daily sales growth is at least 9.5% year over year.
Worry ifFY27 Q1 average daily sales growth is below 9.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Core customer growth was a key part of MSC's strongest sales growth in over three years. A sharp drop would weaken that signal.
Watch forMSC reports core customer growth of about 10% or higher in FY27 Q1.
Also watch forMSC reports core customer growth below 5% in FY27 Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,647 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.