Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Strategy Inc. (MSTR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$142.54+5.09%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.45 → 27.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase $1.5 billion of 2029 Convertible Senior Notes by 2026-Q2 | plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes by 2026-Q2. | Intact | Repurchase falls short of $1.5 billion by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, bitcoin-linked growth story, not a steady earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is under watch: management has followed through on stated priorities, while recent financial performance remains weaker than its industry cohort.
The valuation model shows a premium to peers, with low confidence and a small negative expectations gap, meaning the evidence does not point to a clear cushion between expectations and results. The premium reflects optionality, or the chance that future opportunities add value, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and an elevated chance of another miss leave results vulnerable, though company momentum improved sharply in the latest evidence. Over the multi-year view, management has reduced convertible notes and expanded bitcoin holdings, but BTC Yield, a measure of bitcoin growth relative to share dilution, has slowed; maintaining the dividend rate has also required an increase in its rate.
The unfavorable case centers on another guidance cut, which could reinforce the pattern of estimates being lowered after misses. Favorable conditions include Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers, while the multi-year case also depends on continued accretive growth in bitcoin holdings and disciplined debt management.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MSTR’s thesis rests on bitcoin accumulation and execution, with elevated earnings risk and a peer valuation premium limiting the strength of the evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains its dividend rate on preferred stock, signaling financial discipline. |
| Intact |
| Dividend rate is cut or suspended |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or improve EPS above $10 in FY27 | A primary condition in Strategy Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10 USD EPS. | Broken | EPS falls below $10 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $44.75 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10 USD EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202644.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 3% revenue growth next year | Analysts expect revenue to grow about 3.4% next year, supporting a recovery. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 3% in FY27 | Revenue growth: -2.54% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026-2.536308 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.92 → $27.76 · observed estimates
$0.51B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.92 | $506,675,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.77 | $515,400,010 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.77 | $515,400,010 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.92 | $506,675,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.92 | $506,675,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.77 | $515,400,010 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.92 | $506,675,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.77 | $515,400,010 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.92 | $506,675,263 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.43 | $514,140,440 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.43 | $514,140,440 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.20 | $512,085,380 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.20 | $512,085,380 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.20 | $512,085,380 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.95 | $507,579,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.40 | $506,890,152 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.93 | $510,704,722 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.93 | $510,704,722 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.93 | $510,704,722 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.93 | $510,704,722 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.93 | $510,704,722 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.70 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.70 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.71 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.71 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.71 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.71 | $509,593,513 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.71 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.29 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.28 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.45 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.45 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.45 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.45 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.45 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.31 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.23 | $509,593,551 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.91 | $510,051,155 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.91 | $510,051,155 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.91 | $510,051,155 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.89 | $512,247,525 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.91 | $512,247,511 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.57 | $513,031,804 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $22.94 | $522,435,917 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $27.76 | $523,185,917 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.