M&T Bank (MTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-07-07
$239.75-0.07%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $239.75. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $240 MTB trades at 1.3× p/b, in line with its 1.2× p/b peer median, and our $238 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $215–$260. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $246.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $265.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $322.61 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $46.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$215.00 – $260.00 (median $246.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $273.65 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $227.53 | 1.2 | 186.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $259.77 | 12.4 | 20.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $213.95 | 12.0 | 17.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $33.27 | 3.0 | 11.18 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $261.65 | 14.7 | 17.86 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $191.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $216.31 | 12.1 | 17.86 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $217.71 | 12.0 | 18.17 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $250.80 | 1.2 | 205.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $236.31 | 12.4 | 19.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $294.85 | 12.0 | 24.61 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $360.59 | 14.7 | 24.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $298.11 | 12.1 | 24.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $267.61 | 1.2 | 219.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $221.85 | 12.4 | 17.93 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $365.14 | 12.0 | 30.48 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $446.56 | 14.7 | 30.48 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $369.18 | 12.1 | 30.48 | Analyst | high |