Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
M&T Bank (MTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$219.78-2.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.04 → 21.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases and dividends continue at strong levels | It returns capital with $1.25 billion in share buybacks and $224 million in dividends. | Intact | capital return falls below Q1 2026 levels next year | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large-bank business with a measured, fundamentals-led thesis rather than a high-growth story. The thesis is intact: recent performance is in the top half of its industry, and company momentum improved, though confidence in the overall evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes MTB as cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear slightly below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, loan balances are growing and reported credit measures improved year over year, although net charge-offs rose from the prior quarter. Management continues to emphasize capital returns, but repurchases declined across the first three quarters of 2026; recent earnings beats and stronger company momentum support the current setup, while a past deep miss and peer misses remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends partly on continued loan growth and credit quality, alongside how capital returns develop. The sector backdrop could help if bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, but weaker results from those peers or rate cuts from the current level could weigh on Financials.
For the 1-3 year view, MTB’s thesis remains intact, with loan growth and improving year-over-year credit measures balanced against slower repurchases and sensitivity to sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Credit quality stays strong with a 1.53% loan loss allowance. |
| Under Pressure |
| allowance rises above 1.6% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our improved credit quality and loan growth each reflect the dedication of our teams to prudent lending in service of our customers and communities.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Average loans grow to at least $138 billion | M&T Bank grows loans steadily, reaching $138 billion in Q1 2026. | Intact | average loans fall below $134 billion next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Efficiency ratio stays near 58.3% | The bank keeps costs stable with a 58.3% efficiency ratio. | Under Pressure | efficiency ratio rises above 60% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.04 → $21.04 · observed estimates
$10.40B → $10.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.04 | $10,401,490,268 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.04 | $10,401,490,268 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.04 | $10,383,973,940 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.04 | $10,408,609,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.04 | $10,408,609,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.04 | $10,383,973,940 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.04 | $10,408,609,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.05 | $10,391,174,240 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.04 | $10,413,398,178 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.05 | $10,391,174,240 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.04 | $10,413,398,178 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.05 | $10,391,174,240 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.04 | $10,413,398,178 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.07 | $10,399,711,320 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.07 | $10,399,711,320 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.07 | $10,399,711,320 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.07 | $10,419,065,783 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.07 | $10,422,570,482 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.07 | $10,422,570,482 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.07 | $10,422,570,482 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.07 | $10,425,570,482 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.07 | $10,434,142,807 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.07 | $10,435,428,521 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.07 | $10,435,999,950 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.07 | $10,436,793,357 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.07 | $10,436,793,357 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.06 | $10,434,064,496 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.06 | $10,434,064,496 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.06 | $10,434,064,496 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.06 | $10,435,154,293 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.06 | $10,435,154,293 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.06 | $10,435,154,293 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.06 | $10,445,439,269 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.05 | $10,444,076,087 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.04 | $10,442,461,637 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.04 | $10,442,461,637 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.04 | $10,442,461,637 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.02 | $10,435,571,191 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.00 | $10,433,878,883 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.99 | $10,424,833,330 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.01 | $10,425,019,604 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.01 | $10,425,009,733 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.01 | $10,425,009,733 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.03 | $10,439,230,721 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.05 | $10,438,653,635 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.03 | $10,436,968,494 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.01 | $10,436,615,948 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.01 | $10,436,615,948 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.01 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.01 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.01 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.01 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.01 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.02 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.02 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.02 | $10,440,498,075 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.02 | $10,443,108,838 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.02 | $10,443,108,838 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.02 | $10,443,108,838 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.04 | $10,444,810,410 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.04 | $10,444,810,410 | 15 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Jan 19, 2027
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.