M&T Bank (MTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$239.84-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
MTB — capital allocation — MATERIAL MODIFICATION TO RIGHTS OF SECURITY HOLDERS
Dated 2026-07-21
MATERIAL MODIFICATION TO RIGHTS OF SECURITY HOLDERS. On July 17, 2026, M&T Bank Corporation (“M&T”) filed a certificate of amendment (the “Certificate of Amendment”) with the New York State Department of State establishing the rights, preferences, privileges, qualifications, restrictions and limitations of a new series of its preferred stock designated as the Perpetual 6.625% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series L, par value $1.00 per share, liquidation preference $10,000 per share (the “Se…
Why it matters: A drop in CET1 capital ratio may show weaker capital strength. This could raise regulatory issues.
Worry ifCET1 capital ratio falls below 10% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCET1 capital ratio remains at or above 10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported for Q2 2026 exceed $150 million.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs reported for Q2 2026 are below $150 million.
Why it matters: Higher expenses can show inefficiencies. This may hurt profits.
Worry ifNoninterest expense is over $1.4 billion. This points to cost control issues.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expense is below $1.4 billion. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money a company makes. A wider margin means better earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is over 3.75%. This shows good management of funding costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin is under 3.50%. This may mean there are profit issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $223 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,699 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs mean worse credit quality. This can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.30% of average loans for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.30% of average loans for Q3.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net interest income could signal challenges in loan demand or funding costs.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth below 2% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest income growth of 2% or more compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If the provision increases, it shows worse credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses exceeds $120 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses remains at or below $120 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect M&T Bank's stock performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 12% in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 12%.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may show inefficiencies. This could hurt profits even with revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest expense growth above 6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 noninterest expense growth at or below 6%.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income is key for making more money. This is true after recent drops.
Supportive ifNoninterest income goes up by more than 5% from Q4 2023.
Worry ifNoninterest income goes down or stays the same from Q4 2023.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good use of capital. It shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $465 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases are less than $465 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand. It could also mean more competition.
Worry ifTotal loan growth below 2% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loan growth of 2% or more in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It means the company runs well.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 52.8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 52.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More nonaccrual loans show lower asset quality. This can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans as a percentage of total loans reported above 1.62%.
Less concerning ifNonaccrual loans as a percentage of total loans reported at or below 1.62%.
Why it matters: A lower net interest margin may mean less profit from lending.
Worry ifNet interest margin was below 3.61%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin reported at or above 3.61%.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows strong performance. This helps with plans to return capital.
Supportive ifIn Q3, net income was over $818 million. This is better than Q2 results.
Worry ifIn Q3, net income was below $664 million. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: Loan growth is important for M&T's profits. It matches what management wants to do.
Supportive ifAverage loans increase by more than $2 billion compared to Q2.
Worry ifAverage loans decrease or grow less than $1 billion compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Lower noninterest costs improve efficiency. They also help meet profit goals.
Supportive ifNoninterest expense drops below $1.349 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses rise or stay over $1.349 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in nonaccrual loans show credit quality. They also show how well risks are managed.
Watch forNonaccrual loans decrease to below $1.2 billion in Q3.
Also watch forNonaccrual loans increase above $1.3 billion in Q3.