M&T Bank (MTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$219.78-2.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers
MTB — capital allocation — MATERIAL MODIFICATION TO RIGHTS OF SECURITY HOLDERS
Dated 2026-07-21
MATERIAL MODIFICATION TO RIGHTS OF SECURITY HOLDERS. On July 17, 2026, M&T Bank Corporation (“M&T”) filed a certificate of amendment (the “Certificate of Amendment”) with the New York State Department of State establishing the rights, preferences, privileges, qualifications, restrictions and limitations of a new series of its preferred stock designated as the Perpetual 6.625% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series L, par value $1.00 per share, liquidation preference $10,000 per share (the “Se…
Why it matters: Expenses rose 3% from Q2 and were higher than a year ago. A further rise could squeeze profit.
Worry ifNoninterest expense in 2026-Q4 exceeds $1.393 billion, the 2026-Q3 level.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expense in 2026-Q4 is at or below $1.393 billion.
Why it matters: M&T gave a 10.0% to 10.5% CET1 range for 2026. The Q3 estimate was 10.16%, so the year-end result tests that range.
Watch forM&T reports a 2026 year-end CET1 ratio from 10.0% through 10.5%.
Also watch forM&T reports a 2026 year-end CET1 ratio below 10.0% or above 10.5%.
Why it matters: Average loans grew by $2.6 billion in 2026-Q3. Slower growth would weaken a key source of income.
Supportive ifAverage loans rise by at least $2.6 billion from 2026-Q3 to 2027-Q1, with growth in more than one loan group.
Worry ifAverage loans rise by less than $1 billion, or fall, from 2026-Q3 to 2027-Q1.
Why it matters: M&T repurchased $323 million of shares in Q3, down from $465 million in Q2. A larger next-quarter total would show a faster pace of capital returns.
Supportive ifM&T reports more than $323 million in share repurchases for 2026-Q4.
Worry ifM&T reports $323 million or less in share repurchases for 2026-Q4.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $218 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,699 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.