Mannatech Inc (MTEX)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.00+23.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTEX — Chair transition
Dated 2026-09-01
Chairman of the Board — J. Stanley Fredrick: The Chairman is retiring for personal reasons with a pre-arranged internal successor (Vice Chairman), indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: If operating income improves, it shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, the company made more than $0.2 million in operating income.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, operating income stays negative or goes down more.
Why it matters: A decline in net sales would signal trouble in maintaining revenue levels after recent growth.
Worry ifQ3 net sales down year over year worse than -5.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales increase year over year.
Why it matters: More hiring means a stronger sales team and a chance for more revenue.
Supportive ifNew associate recruitment exceeds 11,000 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew associate recruitment remains below 9,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Mannatech's growth may be affected by overall sector trends. Slowing growth could impact performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 4% each year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 4% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$270 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $933 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,124 loss on $10,000 · 61.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable recruitment numbers show better employee retention. This may lead to growth.
Supportive ifRecruitment numbers are stable or higher compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifRecruitment numbers continue to decline in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and performance. Positive changes can boost confidence.
Watch forThe new CFO helps management show better financial numbers.
Also watch forFinancial metrics get worse or stay the same after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Compliance with Nasdaq rules is critical for listing. Non-compliance could lead to delisting.
Worry ifConfirmation of compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(b)(1).
Less concerning ifThere are more warnings about non-compliance or risks of being delisted.
Why it matters: Keeping positive cash flow shows good cash management and a healthy business.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $1 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would confirm ongoing struggles despite management's focus on growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines year over year worse than -5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or declining sales would indicate if recent growth is sustainable. Investors are keen on revenue trends.
Worry ifQ3 net sales show no growth or decline compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales increase by more than 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows the company is making more money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income stays above $1 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income drops back into the negative for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It shows the company can pay its bills.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3 2026.