Mannatech Inc (MTEX)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.44-2.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 63.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
MTEX — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-10-23
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On October 15, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the "Audit Committee") of Mannatech, Incorporated (the "Company") approved the dismissal of BDO USA, P.C. ("BDO") as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, effective October 15, 2026. The Company notified BDO of the Audit Committee's decision on October 15, 2026. BDO's reports on the Company's co…
Why it matters: Mannatech reported positive operating income in Q2 after a loss a year earlier. A return to losses would weaken that progress.
Worry ifThe November 11 Q3 report shows an operating loss, below $0.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows operating income above $0, with selling and admin costs at or below 33.7% of sales.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 5.1% in constant dollars after a weak Q1. Another gain would show that sales growth is holding.
Supportive ifIn the November 11 Q3 report, constant-dollar sales rise more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifIn the Q3 report, constant-dollar sales are flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: The network count fell from 125,000 a year earlier to 116,000 in Q2. A further drop may signal trouble keeping customers and associates.
Worry ifThe next reported network count is below 116,000.
Less concerning ifThe next reported network count reaches at least 116,000, and new recruiting stays above the prior-year level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $897 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,986 loss on $10,000 · 59.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.