MasTec (MTZ)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$237.19+2.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
MTZ — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-10
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, MasTec, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with PNC Capital Markets LLC, Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.850% Senior Notes due 2036 (t…
Why it matters: This segment is a key driver of overall revenue growth. Strong performance here supports management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifClean Energy and Infrastructure revenue grows year over year by more than 40%.
Worry ifClean Energy and Infrastructure revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for MasTec's services.
Supportive ifBacklog grows past $21.4 billion. This suggests strong demand in Clean Energy.
Worry ifBacklog stays under $21.4 billion. This shows a slowdown in new contracts.
Why it matters: A growing backlog signals strong future revenue potential. It reflects customer demand.
Supportive if18-month backlog reported at or above $20 billion.
Worry if18-month backlog reported below $20 billion.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth may show demand for services is getting weaker.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 20% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth at or above 20% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $521 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,691 loss on $10,000 · 46.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up again, it shows good profits and strong management.
Supportive ifManagement raises diluted EPS guidance to more than $6.20 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers diluted EPS guidance to below $6.20 for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means more profit. It shows that management believes in good financial results.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS guidance raised above $2.03.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS guidance remains at or below $2.03.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that MasTec can make more money and grow.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Adjusted EPS guidance at $8.79 for the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts Adjusted EPS guidance to less than $8.79.
Why it matters: A recovery in free cash flow is crucial for funding growth initiatives.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means more profits. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is over $2.98. This shows strong earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is under $2.98. This shows weaker profits.
Why it matters: This acquisition may affect MasTec's growth plans and financial health.
Watch forThe acquisition is done. It helps MasTec's operations.
Also watch forThe acquisition is delayed or falls through.
Why it matters: The new loan could affect liquidity and capital allocation. Monitoring cash flow is crucial.
Watch forCash flow from operations gets much better after the loan agreement.
Also watch forCash flow from operations goes down or stays the same after the loan agreement.
Why it matters: If MasTec exceeds guidance, it shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is over $4.9 billion. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is under $4.9 billion. This suggests demand issues.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could boost MasTec's performance. This is crucial as the sector is currently maturing.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the sector re-accelerates back toward its highs, above 6%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is below 6%.
Why it matters: A significant increase in net debt could raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifNet debt increases by more than $650 million after the notes issuance.
Less concerning ifNet debt remains stable or decreases after the notes issuance.
Why it matters: This EPS figure is part of the updated guidance. Meeting it indicates strong profitability.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EPS reported at or above $2.20.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EPS reported below $2.20.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue potential. It shows ongoing demand for MasTec.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to over $21.4 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $21 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance MasTec's service offerings and market position. Its success is crucial for future growth.
Watch forThe acquisition will likely boost revenue or backlog in the next two quarters.
Also watch forThe acquisition does not contribute to revenue growth or backlog increase within the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Good integration will boost MasTec's skills. This is important for future growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifLook for positive news on The Superior Group integration in six months.
Worry ifWatch for reports of problems or delays in integration within six months.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to confirming management's strong revenue growth target for 2026. If revenue falls short, it may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue growth is below 22% year-over-year, it shows a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 22% year-over-year, confirming strong demand.
Why it matters: This segment is a key growth driver. Slower growth could indicate challenges in this market.
Worry ifClean Energy backlog growth slows to below 30% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifClean Energy backlog growth stays at or above 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health. It can help future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet cash flow from operations increases above $120 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet cash flow from operations falls below $120 million in the next quarter.