MasTec (MTZ)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$158.94-5.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTZ — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in
Why it matters: A significant increase in net debt could raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifNet debt increases by more than $650 million after the notes issuance.
Less concerning ifNet debt remains stable or decreases after the notes issuance.
Why it matters: This segment is a key driver of overall revenue growth. Strong performance here supports management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifClean Energy and Infrastructure revenue grows year over year by more than 40%.
Worry ifClean Energy and Infrastructure revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: This segment helped drive the record backlog. More bookings would support future work; a drop would weaken that signal.
Watch forAt the next report, Clean Energy and Infrastructure backlog is above $7.791 billion, its June 30 level.
Also watch forAt the next report, Clean Energy and Infrastructure backlog is below $7.791 billion.
Why it matters: A higher backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for MasTec's services.
Supportive ifBacklog grows past $21.4 billion. This suggests strong demand in Clean Energy.
Worry ifBacklog stays under $21.4 billion. This shows a slowdown in new contracts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $562 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,367 loss on $10,000 · 63.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A growing backlog signals strong future revenue potential. It reflects customer demand.
Supportive if18-month backlog reported at or above $20 billion.
Worry if18-month backlog reported below $20 billion.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future revenue potential. A slowdown may mean less demand.
Worry ifBacklog growth is reported at less than 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth meets or exceeds 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for MasTec's performance. A drop below this level may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 22% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 22% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows strong profits. This means the company is doing well.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $9.30 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers adjusted EPS guidance to below $9.30 for 2026.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it shows management is confident in making money and running well.
Supportive ifIf Q3 diluted EPS guidance is above $2.03, it shows strong earnings potential.
Worry ifIf Q3 diluted EPS guidance is at or below $2.03, it shows possible profit pressure.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that MasTec can make more money and grow.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Adjusted EPS guidance at $8.79 for the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts Adjusted EPS guidance to less than $8.79.
Why it matters: A recovery in free cash flow is crucial for funding growth initiatives.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means more profits. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is over $2.98. This shows strong earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is under $2.98. This shows weaker profits.
Why it matters: MasTec closed the Superior Group deal in July. Its data center work adds a new capability, but the release gave no profit target.
Watch forA company report names Superior Group data center work. It shows higher segment revenue or earnings after the deal.
Also watch forA company report says Superior Group joined the company late, costs rose, or earnings fell below plan.
Why it matters: The impact of new debt on cash flow will show how well MasTec manages its capital structure. It is crucial for future investments and growth.
Watch forCash flow improves post-debt issuance, supporting growth plans.
Also watch forCash flow worsens or remains negative after debt issuance.
Why it matters: This acquisition may affect MasTec's growth plans and financial health.
Watch forThe acquisition is done. It helps MasTec's operations.
Also watch forThe acquisition is delayed or falls through.
Why it matters: MasTec set Q3 revenue guidance at $4.93B. A higher result would extend its strong growth record.
Supportive ifOn October 29, Q3 revenue is reported above $4.93B, as guided in July.
Worry ifOn October 29, Q3 revenue is reported below $4.93B.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health. It can help future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet cash flow from operations increases above $120 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet cash flow from operations falls below $120 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The new loan could affect liquidity and capital allocation. Monitoring cash flow is crucial.
Watch forCash flow from operations gets much better after the loan agreement.
Also watch forCash flow from operations goes down or stays the same after the loan agreement.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for MasTec's long-term plans and steady revenue.
Supportive ifClean Energy backlog grew more than 58% compared to last year.
Worry ifClean Energy backlog growth is less than 58% year-over-year.
Why it matters: MasTec reported negative free cash flow in Q2 as it invested and closed the Superior deal. A cash flow rebound would ease funding pressure.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow is above zero and operating cash flow is positive.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow remains below zero and operating cash flow falls below zero.
Why it matters: MasTec issued $650M of notes at 5.85% to repay some or all of its $600M term loan. The filings can show how much debt shifted.
Watch forA filing shows the term loan balance falls by about $600M after the notes issue.
Also watch forA filing shows little term loan repayment, with much of the notes money left for general use.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will help MasTec's finances and support its growth plans.
Supportive ifThe $650 million senior notes offering closes as planned on August 17, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or is delayed significantly.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could boost MasTec's performance. This is crucial as the sector is currently maturing.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the sector re-accelerates back toward its highs, above 6%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is below 6%.
Why it matters: A backlog above $22 billion would show strong demand for MasTec's services and support future revenue growth. It reflects the company's ability to secure new contracts.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to over $22 billion.
Worry ifBacklog growth stalls or declines from current levels.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance capabilities. Its success will show if it adds value to MasTec's operations.
Watch forIf Q3 results show better margins or revenue growth, it is due to the Superior Group acquisition.
Also watch forIf Q3 results do not show benefits from the Superior Group acquisition, it is a concern.
Why it matters: Successful integration will boost MasTec's skills and help future growth. It is key to their plan.
Supportive ifManagement says they have integrated The Superior Group. They found benefits from this buy.
Worry ifReports say there are integration problems or delays. These affect performance.
Why it matters: MasTec issued $650 million of notes to repay some or all of its $600 million term loan. The next filing can show how much debt moved.
Watch forA filing shows the notes proceeds repaid the $600 million term loan, due June 2028.
Also watch forA filing shows the term loan remains unpaid and the notes proceeds went to other uses.