MCEWEN INC (MUX)
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.07-2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MUX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 38.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MUX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 27, 2026, McEwen Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its 46.3%-owned equity investee McEwen Copper Inc. has closed a $240 million senior secured 4-year term loan facility with a syndicate of lenders and provided an update on the Los Azules project. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. Investors and other interested parties are encouraged to read in its entirety the press release because it contains important information…
Why it matters: Higher dividends from San José support cash flow for growth and production expansion.
Supportive ifDividends from San José exceed $40M for the full year 2026.
Worry ifDividends from San José fall below $40M for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could signal a recovery in the declining materials sector. This would help MCEWEN INC's outlook.
Supportive ifMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative or worsens in the materials sector.
Why it matters: Financing updates will show when construction starts. They will also affect future cash flow.
Supportive ifMcEwen Copper shares news about getting money for the Los Azules project.
Worry ifMcEwen Copper fails to secure financing for Los Azules project.
Why it matters: Finishing the FID is key for the Los Azules copper project. It helps get funding.
Supportive ifThe Los Azules project will finish its Final Investment Decision work by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe FID work program for Los Azules is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$250 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $717 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,365 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This study is important for the Fox Complex's future production.
Supportive ifThe company shares the Grey Fox Pre-Feasibility Study. The results are good.
Worry ifThe study is delayed or shows unfavorable results.
Why it matters: Production levels will show if the company is meeting its growth goals. This is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifQ2 production from San José exceeds 15,000 ounces.
Worry ifQ2 production from San José falls below 12,000 ounces.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if production and cost targets are being met. This affects investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings report shows production from San José over 15,000 GEOs.
Also watch forEarnings report shows production from San José under 15,000 GEOs.
Why it matters: Keeping costs in check is vital for profitability. It helps maintain investor confidence.
Supportive ifCost per ounce reported at or below $1,200.
Worry ifCost per ounce reported above $1,400.
Why it matters: High-grade results can improve resource estimates. They can also help production growth.
Supportive ifNew exploration results at Grey Fox and Tartan show high grades similar to previous reports.
Worry ifNew results at Grey Fox and Tartan show lower grades than before.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. This can make investors feel more positive.
Supportive ifSan José operations pay over $60 million in dividends.
Worry ifDividends from San José operations fall below $50 million.
Why it matters: Increased production at San José is a top management priority. It impacts revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says production at San José is up more than 10% from last quarter.
Worry ifManagement reports a production decrease at San José or no growth.
Why it matters: Changes in production guidance will show how well McEwen is running its operations.
Worry ifProduction guidance from the Gold Bar Complex increases back to 39,000 – 43,000 GEOs.
Less concerning ifProduction guidance from the Gold Bar Complex decreases further below 30,000 GEOs.
Why it matters: Starting production at the Stock Mine will boost overall output and revenue. It is a key growth driver.
Supportive ifMining at the Stock Mine begins in Q4 2026.
Worry ifMining at the Stock Mine is delayed past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on El Gallo will show progress in expanding production capacity. It is crucial for future revenue.
Supportive ifConstruction at El Gallo begins in late Q3 2026.
Worry ifConstruction at El Gallo is delayed beyond late Q3 2026.