Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Microvast Holdings, Inc. (MVST)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.57-13.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.09 → 0.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MVST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Recovery in delivery schedules and revenue ramp in 2026 | A primary condition in Microvast Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth resumes and delivery schedules improve in 2026. | Broken | Revenue growth remains negative and delivery delays continue in 2026 | Revenue: $87.262M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth resumes and delivery schedules improve in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202687,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven durable compounder: results are weak, earnings quality is fragile, and risk is high. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with the recent signal shifting from cautious to mixed.
The valuation is about in line with peers, and the evidence characterizes what is priced in as justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is negative, so the market setup does not suggest that expectations are especially forgiving.
Near term, revenue rose from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026, and management says the Huzhou production ramp remains on track, but gross margin declined and stayed below its prior target range. The next call is an important risk point because a guidance cut could reinforce the weak execution picture; the August delisting-related notice is also a material concern.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on the Huzhou Phase 3.2 ramp translating into sustained revenue growth while margins improve. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
MVST has signs of operational progress, but the 1-to-3-year view remains uncertain because financial performance is weak, margins are under pressure, and risk is high. The thesis hinges on production execution, revenue recovery, and evidence of more resilient margins. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin near 33.5% in 2025 | It targets a gross margin near 33.5% in 2025. | Broken | Gross margin falls below 32% in FY25 | Gross margin: 29.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~33.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202629.540923 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 2026 Outlook & Forward-Looking Information • We continue to target a stable gross margin profile through sustained operational discipline and premium product positioning.” “• Gross margin decreased to 29.5% from 34.7% in Q2 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stable and effective management team | A supporting condition in Microvast Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures and improved governance in 2026. | Under Pressure | Further key executive departures or governance issues arise | 1 exec departure + 1 governance investigation vs 0 departures target CAO Eric Garcia departed in May 2026; June 2026 news reports a governance investigation and executive departure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $462 million in 2025 | Microvast aims to grow revenue to about $462 million in 2025. | Broken | Revenue falls below $450 million in FY25 | Revenue: $87.262M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $462.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202687,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.16 → $0.09 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.15 | $591,501,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.16 | $591,497,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.09 | $469,526,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.