Reading MWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MWA free→Reading MWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MWA free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 MWA trades at 19× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.39 (+1.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$238.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,877.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track to increase revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MWA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchang…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MWA Mueller Water Products | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Keeping this dividend shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It shows they are stable with their money.
Confirms:Dividend payments remain at $0.07 per share in Q3.
Disproves:Dividend payments drop below $0.07 per share in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Operating income increases by more than 5% year over year.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends builds investor trust. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Confirms one read:A dividend increase or steady payments will be announced.
Confirms the other:A dividend cut or suspension will be announced.
Why it matters: If it rises above this level, it shows good cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $85M in Q3.
Disproves:Operating income is $85M or lower in Q3.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is changing. This could affect Mueller's growth and performance.
Confirms one read:Sector growth speeds up to over 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector growth slows further below 3% year over year.