MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.74+5.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MXL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 49.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
MXL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, MaxLinear issued a press release announcing its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibits 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Why it matters: Improving margins are key to MaxLinear's financial health. This will show how well costs are managed.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves by more than 1% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines by more than 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Firing Grant Thornton may hurt investor trust and financial reports. It's important to watch this.
Worry ifA new auditor is hired and keeps reporting clear.
Less concerning ifThe new auditor raises worries or problems with financial reports.
Why it matters: Kris Sennesael's experience may shape MaxLinear's growth plans. His ideas could lead to new projects.
Supportive ifNew plans announced that use Sennesael's skills.
Worry ifNo new plans or strategy changes in 6 months.
Why it matters: This guidance indicates how well MaxLinear is managing costs as it grows. It will show if expenses are under control.
Worry ifOperating expenses land within or below the guided range of $98M to $104M.
Less concerning ifOperating costs are over $104M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$468 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $972 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,528 loss on $10,000 · 55.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The change of the accounting firm may shake investor trust and affect financial reports. Stable accounting is key for clear information.
Worry ifThere are no more changes to the accounting firm or bad effects on financial reports.
Less concerning ifA new accounting firm was announced, which could harm financial reporting.
Why it matters: This report will show if MaxLinear is growing revenue as planned. Investors will closely watch the numbers.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin reported below 57.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin reported above 60.0%.
Why it matters: Improving margins show the company is managing costs well. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases to above 55% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin stays below 50% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. It will reveal its financial and operational health.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit or positive guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a loss or negative guidance.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows better cost management. This could lead to higher stock value.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to above -$10M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains below -$20M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Firing the accounting firm may lower investor trust. It could change the company's financial reports.
Worry ifNo new legal problems come from the firing.
Less concerning ifNew legal issues come up after the accountant was fired.
Why it matters: Changes in auditors can show problems. Stability here helps keep investor trust.
Worry ifNo changes in the independent auditor for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifA new auditor has been announced. This auditor is independent.
Why it matters: The change in accountants could affect financial reporting. This is important for investor trust.
Worry ifThe new accounting firm gave good feedback on financial reporting.
Less concerning ifNegative findings or issues reported by the new accounting firm.
Why it matters: This range shows if MaxLinear's growth momentum continues. It reflects demand for their products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $220M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $210M.
Why it matters: Higher expenses could signal trouble in managing costs as revenue grows.
Worry ifOperating expenses land at or below $98M.
Less concerning ifOperating costs are more than $104M.
Why it matters: This growth rate signals strong demand for MaxLinear's optical AI data center products.
Supportive ifInfrastructure revenue growth exceeds 140% year over year.
Worry ifInfrastructure revenue growth drops below 130% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows how well MaxLinear controls costs. It also shows revenue growth.
Watch forGross margin guidance meets or exceeds 60%.
Also watch forGross margin guidance falls below 57%.