MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.31-22.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MXL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 89.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MXL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 16, 2026, MaxLinear, Inc. (“MaxLinear”) entered into an Amendment No. 3 to Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”), by and among MaxLinear, Exar Corporation, a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of MaxLinear, MaxLinear Communications, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of MaxLinear, the lenders party thereto and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collat…
Why it matters: Lower margin could show that the sales mix or costs are weighing on profit gains.
Worry ifQ4 non-GAAP gross margin is below 59%, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ4 non-GAAP gross margin is at or above 59%.
Why it matters: That would beat the top of the company’s Q4 revenue range and extend its recent growth run.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue tops $260 million, above the stated $240 million to $260 million range.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $240 million, the bottom of the stated range.
Why it matters: The IT sector is still growing, but its pace has eased. Continued company growth would show strength against that backdrop.
Watch forMXL reports year-over-year revenue growth above 20% in its next two reported quarters.
Also watch forMXL reports year-over-year revenue growth below 10% in either of its next two quarters.
Why it matters: AI data center products drove much of the recent growth. A sharp slowdown could weaken that growth story.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows AI data center infrastructure revenue grew less than 100% year over year.
Less concerning ifAI data center infrastructure revenue grows at least 100% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$478 on $10,000 · ±4.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,077 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,560 loss on $10,000 · 55.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.