Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.29+4.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MYGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $37M-$49M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is targeted between $37M and $49M. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $37M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and turnaround case in healthcare diagnostics, not a proven durable compounder, because the company remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is in watch status: cancer-testing volumes are growing, but recent financial performance is weak and earnings execution has been uneven.
The valuation model signals cheapness versus peers, but its confidence is low, and the expectations gap is 0.29. The evidence does not establish what specific growth or improvement the market already assumes, so the cheapness signal alone offers limited support for the thesis.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, with a 55% estimated chance of a next-quarter miss; the evidence flags a guidance cut as a negative trigger. In Q2 2026, cancer-care test volume grew 6% year over year, but revenue per test fell 9%, total revenue was lower than in Q1, and operating expenses rose year over year. The sector backdrop has improved, though litigation was reported on October 20 and management’s efficiency efforts have shown limited delivery so far.
The multi-year thesis hinges on cancer-care volume growth translating into stronger revenue despite reimbursement pressure, and on efficiency efforts reducing losses. Near-term signals include the next guidance update, employment data that could affect sector sentiment, and whether healthcare bellwethers continue to report strong results.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MYGN’s thesis has a supportive sector backdrop and some cancer-testing volume growth, but persistent revenue-per-test pressure, losses, and elevated earnings risk leave execution as the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin should stay near 68%-69%. |
| Broken |
| Gross margin falls below 68% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize management team after recent departures | A supporting condition in Myriad Genetics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures occur | 1 key executive departure (CCO) vs 0 target Formal separation agreement for CCO Brian Donnelly disclosed in Oct 2026, confirming a key executive departure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $860M-$880M in 2026 | A primary condition in Myriad Genetics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $860M-$880M total revenue. | Broken | Revenue falls below $818M in FY26 | Revenue: $190.7M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: $860M-$880M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 2026190,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.15 → $-0.59 · observed estimates
$0.92B → $0.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.15 | $915,773,778 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.15 | $915,773,778 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.15 | $915,824,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.04 | $901,645,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.07 | $881,306,560 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $881,306,560 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.07 | $881,306,560 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.34 | $845,089,860 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.41 | $834,572,110 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $881,252,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.53 | $821,558,590 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.53 | $821,558,590 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.57 | $821,780,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.58 | $820,673,034 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.57 | $821,155,448 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.57 | $821,176,908 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.58 | $820,963,231 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.58 | $820,963,231 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.58 | $820,941,009 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.58 | $820,941,009 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.58 | $820,941,009 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.58 | $820,941,009 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.58 | $820,941,009 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.59 | $820,356,214 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.59 | $820,356,214 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.59 | $820,356,214 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.59 | $820,356,214 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.59 | $820,356,214 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.59 | $820,378,436 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.59 | $820,481,481 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.59 | $820,478,847 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.59 | $820,456,625 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.