Natural Alternatives International Inc (NAII)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.08-1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NAII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
NAII — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-01
CFO — Michael E. Fortin: Michael E. Fortin resigned as CFO to take a new role at another company.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change strategy and execution. This could affect financial results.
Watch forThe new CFO shares a plan that makes the financial outlook better.
Also watch forNew CFO fails to provide a clear strategy or causes further instability.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow signals better financial health. It shows the company is stabilizing.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $3M in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $2M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows progress. This is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$3M in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNet income worsens to worse than -$4.5M in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would indicate a shift in the declining sector. It could signal recovery.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $583 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,776 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable leadership is important for direction. A smooth change can help investor trust.
Watch forNo more executive changes or problems happen in the next quarter.
Also watch forAnother top executive is leaving. There are also big changes in management.
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect financial strategy and operations. This is important for future performance.
Watch forThe new CFO makes changes. These changes help stabilize or improve financial results.
Also watch forA CFO change may cause more problems or lead to less money coming in.
Why it matters: Stabilizing margins would indicate better cost management. It is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improve to at least $1M in Q4 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margins fall below $0.3M in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is getting its finances in order. This can help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves to over $3M in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations declines or stays below $2.50M in Q3.
Why it matters: A bigger loss shows the company still has problems making money. This can worry investors.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is worse than -$4.31M.
Less concerning ifNet income improves to better than -$4.31M in Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is making more money and controlling costs well.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improve to over $1M in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margins decline further below $0.38M in Q3.