Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.67+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATH
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $99 NATH trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $87 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $77.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $98.67 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $20.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $98.67 | 11.1 | 9.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $105.89 |
| 22.9 |
| 4.62 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $81.40 | 16.9 | 4.83 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $37.66 | 0.9 | 40.96 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $98.62 | 20.4 | 4.83 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $84.45 | 16.9 | 5.01 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $97.33 | 22.9 | 4.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $94.27 | 16.9 | 5.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $47.87 | 0.9 | 52.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $114.21 | 20.4 | 5.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $92.02 | 22.9 | 4.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $110.62 | 16.9 | 6.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $56.17 | 0.9 | 61.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $134.02 | 20.4 | 6.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |