Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.67+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Net income at or above $2.81M in fiscal Q4 2026: Net income $2.81M vs $2.81M target (Q4 FY26: $2.81M; Q1 FY27: $8.81M).
Nathan's Famous grows revenue from $30.79M to $35.07M in 2026-Q4. Net income reached $2.81M in 2026-Q4. The company keeps profit margins steady near $4.68M operating income. It has stable management and no recent market stress.
Operational efficiency is weak as operating income fell from $5.13M to $4.68M. Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations. The sector faces headwinds that may hurt sales and profits.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $92. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: Net income falls below $2.81M in any quarter after 2026-Q4
Continue to grow revenues and maintain profitability across business segments despite cost pressures.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenues grew from $46,998,000 in 2026-Q1 to $54,062,000 in 2027-Q1, while net income remained stable at about $8.9M to $8.8M. Management is maintaining profitability and delivering revenue growth consistent with this priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with some fragility in earnings quality. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has improved, but there are significant risks ahead.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that expectations are somewhat aligned with the company's current performance. The valuation appears neutral compared to peers, with a slight premium.
Management is focused on maintaining profitability and revenue growth, which has shown strong results recently. However, operational efficiency remains a mixed priority due to rising costs, and there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful completion of the Smithfield Foods acquisition and the ability to manage operational costs effectively. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders could influence NATH's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Revenues were $54,062,000 as compared to $46,998,000... Net income was $8,829,000 as compared to $8,928,000”
“Revenues were $35,066,000 for the thirteen weeks ended March 29, 2026 as compared to $30,787,000”
“Revenues were $35,066,000 for the fiscal year ended March 29, 2026 as compared to $30,787,000”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $4.0M in any quarter after 2026-Q4
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $30.79M in any quarter after 2026-Q4
Continue to grow revenues and maintain profitability across business segments despite cost pressures.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenues grew from $46,998,000 in 2026-Q1 to $54,062,000 in 2027-Q1, while net income remained stable at about $8.9M to $8.8M. Management is maintaining profitability and delivering revenue growth consistent with this priority.
“Revenues were $54,062,000 as compared to $46,998,000... Net income was $8,829,000 as compared to $8,928,000”
“Revenues were $35,066,000 for the thirteen weeks ended March 29, 2026 as compared to $30,787,000”
“Revenues were $35,066,000 for the fiscal year ended March 29, 2026 as compared to $30,787,000”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NATH's performance will depend on management's execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.