Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.050.00%
Close 2026-10-27 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
NATH — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-10-26
Changes in Control of Registrant. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and under Items 2.01, 3.01, 3.03, 5.02 and 5.03 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Higher beef costs could hurt profits. This is critical for Nathan's hot dog sales.
Worry ifBeef costs increase more than 22%, leading to further declines in income from operations.
Less concerning ifBeef costs stabilize or decrease, allowing margins to improve.
Why it matters: A lawsuit tied to the merger could affect its timing or closing terms. A court ruling or settlement would show how this risk changes.
Watch forA court filing shows the merger lawsuit was dismissed or settled, with no stated change to the deal terms.
Also watch forA court filing blocks the merger, delays it, or changes the deal terms.
Why it matters: Beef prices directly affect costs. Changes could impact Nathan's margins and profits.
Watch forBeef prices stabilize or decrease, easing cost pressures.
Also watch forBeef prices go up more, adding to cost pressures.
Why it matters: The acquisition may change Nathan's growth plans and market position. This could affect how investors feel.
Watch forLook for news about the acquisition from Smithfield Foods.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the acquisition process.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$20 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $156 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,586 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is key for Nathan's to complete the merger and become privately held. This will impact future operations and strategy.
Supportive ifMost of Nathan's shareholders and regulators agree with the merger.
Worry ifThe merger does not get the needed approvals. This may delay or cancel the deal.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. It also means they are more efficient.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $4.68M in Q1 to above $5M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income drops from $4.68M in Q1. This shows worsening efficiency.
Why it matters: A new lawsuit may affect the pending Smithfield deal. Court action or a change to the deal terms would add risk to its planned close.
Worry ifA court order blocks the deal, or a public filing says the lawsuit delayed closing or changed the deal terms.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit is dismissed or settled, and the merger proceeds on its stated terms and timeline.
Why it matters: Hot dog sales rose, but beef costs cut profit in the branded product business. A recovery would ease pressure on overall earnings.
Supportive ifBranded-product operating income tops $1.33 million. Beef cost growth slows from 22% year over year.
Worry ifBranded-product operating income is $1.33 million or less, or beef costs rise faster than 22% year over year.
Why it matters: License royalties rose 10% in the latest quarter, mostly from the Smithfield retail and foodservice deal. Further growth would support this steady source of income.
Supportive ifThe November 5, 2026 results show license royalties above $13.59 million. Smithfield royalties are above $12.62 million.
Worry ifLicense royalties are at or below $13.59 million, or Smithfield royalties fall below $12.62 million.
Why it matters: Franchise sales help make money. Stabilization shows a stronger market and more trust from franchisees.
Supportive ifFranchise restaurant sales show growth of at least 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifFranchise restaurant sales decline again or show no growth year over year.
Why it matters: A decline shows weak demand. This could mean bigger problems in the consumer sector.
Worry ifQ3 revenues fall below $54,062,000, which is the revenue reported for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenues are over $54,062,000. This shows growth is still happening.
Why it matters: The acquisition is key for Nathan's future. It could change how the company operates and grows.
Supportive ifThe deal will close if most stockholders approve it. CFIUS must also clear it by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe deal will not close if stockholders do not approve it. Regulatory issues can also stop it.
Why it matters: A drop in operational income shows ongoing cost management issues. This affects profits.
Worry ifOperational income is less than $4.68 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperational income stays the same or goes above $4.68 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher prices helped lift branded product sales, but volume also grew. Keeping volume growth would show that customers are still buying more despite price increases.
Supportive ifThe November 5, 2026 results show branded product hot dog volume growth of at least 8% year over year.
Worry ifBranded product hot dog volume growth is below 8%, turns flat, or falls year over year.
Why it matters: Beef costs are a major factor in Nathan's profitability. A decline could improve margins.
Supportive ifBeef costs decrease by more than 10% from current levels.
Worry ifBeef costs increase or remain stable, further compressing margins.
Why it matters: Revenue growth or decline will indicate how well Nathan's Famous is performing in a tough market.
Watch forQ4 revenue results show growth year over year, exceeding prior results.
Also watch forQ4 revenue results decline year over year, falling below prior results.
Why it matters: Four franchise locations opened in the first quarter, but franchise restaurant sales fell year over year. Higher sales would show the openings are gaining traction.
Supportive ifFranchise restaurant sales exceed $18.204 million year over year. More locations opened than closed.
Worry ifFranchise restaurant sales drop below $18.204 million year over year, or more locations close than open.
Why it matters: The prior quarter had higher revenue but slightly lower net income. The next report will show whether growth is reaching the bottom line.
Watch forRevenue grows year over year and net income is above $8.829 million.
Also watch forRevenue falls year over year or net income is below $8.829 million.
Why it matters: Beef costs rose 22%, while branded product operating income fell from $2.28 million to $1.33 million. Another drop would show more pressure on this business.
Worry ifThe November 5, 2026 results show branded product operating income below $1.33 million. Or beef costs rise faster than selling prices.
Less concerning ifBranded product operating income is at least $1.33 million, with beef cost growth at or below selling price growth.
Why it matters: Franchise sales are a key revenue source. A rebound indicates strong brand health.
Supportive ifFranchise restaurant sales increase above $18 million in Q3.
Worry ifFranchise restaurant sales drop below $18 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The $102-per-share cash deal is still pending. Its close depends on stockholder and regulatory approval.
Watch forThe merger closes in the second half of 2026, as the company stated.
Also watch forA filing or company release says the deal is delayed, blocked, or ended.
Why it matters: Income from this program is crucial. A decline could signal deeper cost issues.
Worry ifIncome from the branded product program drops below $1.3 million.
Less concerning ifIncome from the branded product program stays the same or goes up from $1.33 million.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is crucial for Nathan's overall performance. It reflects demand and pricing power.
Supportive ifBranded product program revenues increase by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenues from the branded product program decline or grow less than 5% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher beef costs directly impact margins. This could hurt profitability if costs rise too much.
Worry ifBeef costs increase by more than 20% compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifBeef costs stabilize or decrease year over year.
Why it matters: Nathan's keeps growing its revenue. This shows it can stay strong in the market despite rising costs.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $54 million, maintaining growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $54 million. This may mean a drop in sales.