Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.67+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NATH — officer change
Dated 2026-01-21
The company entered into retention agreements with the CEO and CFO, providing for significant bonuses under certain conditions.
Why it matters: Higher beef costs directly affect Nathan's profitability. This could lead to lower earnings.
Worry ifBeef costs increase by more than 20%, leading to reduced income from operations.
Less concerning ifBeef costs stabilize or decrease, allowing margins to improve.
Why it matters: The acquisition may change Nathan's growth plans and market position. This could affect how investors feel.
Watch forLook for news about the acquisition from Smithfield Foods.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Approval is key for Nathan's to complete the merger and become privately held. This will impact future operations and strategy.
Supportive ifMost of Nathan's shareholders and regulators agree with the merger.
Worry ifThe merger does not get the needed approvals. This may delay or cancel the deal.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. It also means they are more efficient.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $4.68M in Q1 to above $5M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income drops from $4.68M in Q1. This shows worsening efficiency.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$23 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,748 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in operational income shows ongoing cost management issues. This affects profits.
Worry ifOperational income is less than $4.68 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperational income stays the same or goes above $4.68 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth or decline will indicate how well Nathan's Famous is performing in a tough market.
Watch forQ4 revenue results show growth year over year, exceeding prior results.
Also watch forQ4 revenue results decline year over year, falling below prior results.
Why it matters: Keeping franchise sales steady is key for Nathan's overall revenue health.
Supportive ifFranchise restaurant sales report growth above last year's $18.4 million.
Worry ifFranchise restaurant sales fall further from $18.4 million. This shows weakness.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth is important for Nathan's profits and its place in the market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year. This shows weak sales.
Why it matters: The merger will change Nathan's structure. It could affect how the company operates in the future. Shareholders and regulators must approve it.
Supportive ifThe merger will close if all approvals are obtained by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe merger will not close if shareholders do not approve it or if there are regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Beef prices have gone up a lot. This affects Nathan's profits. A drop in prices could help margins and financial health.
Supportive ifBeef prices decrease by at least 10% from current levels, improving margins in the branded product program.
Worry ifBeef prices continue to rise or remain stable, further squeezing margins.
Why it matters: Franchise sales help make money. Stabilization shows a stronger market and more trust from franchisees.
Supportive ifFranchise restaurant sales show growth of at least 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifFranchise restaurant sales decline again or show no growth year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is crucial for Nathan's overall performance. It reflects demand and pricing power.
Supportive ifBranded product program revenues increase by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenues from the branded product program decline or grow less than 5% in the next quarter.