Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$120.37-14.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NBIS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategic partnerships enhancing market position | A supporting condition in Nebius Group N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3 major partnerships in the next year. | Intact | fails to secure any new major partnerships in the next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk case with an insufficiently established thesis, rather than a clearly supported durable-growth or turnaround story. The available evidence offers little detail on NBIS's operations or recent financial performance.
The valuation evidence does not provide a qualitative comparison with peers or a clear account of market expectations, so it is not possible to say whether the shares appear cheap, fair, or expensive. The priced-in assessment reports low fragility, meaning no listed signal suggests unusually concentrated fragility.
There is not enough recent financial history to assess the multi-year fundamental trajectory. Near term, the reported chance of missing expectations is low, but recent earnings surprises have been erratic and industry peers have been missing lately.
Near-term sector support could improve if the Fed begins cutting rates or if sector bellwethers DV, GTM, and AREN keep reporting strong results and guidance. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support; NBIS's own financial performance remains a key unknown.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis remains uncertain because the evidence on NBIS's financial trajectory and valuation expectations is thin. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Nebius Group N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is sustain price increases of at least 10% annually. |
| Intact |
| unable to implement price increases in the next fiscal year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from AI cloud services | A primary condition in Nebius Group N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY. | Intact | falls below 10% YoY growth next fiscal year | Revenue growth: 454.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026454.043768 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.87 → $-3.26 · observed estimates
$11.45B → $12.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.87 | $11,451,918,150 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.87 | $11,456,538,240 | 7 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.87 | $11,456,538,240 | 7 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.83 | $11,418,143,510 | 6 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.57 | $11,608,423,259 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.07 | $11,907,501,476 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.07 | $11,927,195,838 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.02 | $11,906,306,002 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.02 | $11,906,306,002 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.02 | $11,906,306,002 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.02 | $11,917,302,055 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.36 | $11,921,981,002 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.07 | $12,112,091,058 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.09 | $12,107,291,529 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.90 | $12,146,238,897 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.90 | $12,146,238,897 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.90 | $12,146,238,897 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.86 | $12,100,276,952 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.86 | $12,100,276,952 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.55 | $12,135,000,696 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.54 | $12,105,138,758 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.52 | $12,103,268,814 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.26 | $12,054,677,905 | 8 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.