NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.93+2.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-19
Director — Patrick J. Burns: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a standard governance action and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Changes in how much coal is delivered can impact money made in the Utility Coal segment.
Worry ifCoal delivery volumes drop below 5,500 tons in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCoal delivery volumes exceed 5,500 tons in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More cutback costs show ongoing problems with solar investments. This affects overall profits.
Worry ifCurtailment costs over $2 million have been announced for solar projects.
Less concerning ifNo new cutback costs have been reported for solar projects.
Why it matters: Hitting this spending goal shows management wants to grow and invest wisely.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending is $89 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital spending is less than $89 million for 2026.
Why it matters: How NACCO handles its solar assets will affect its finances and future growth.
Watch forSuccessful sales of solar assets or fewer losses.
Also watch forMore impairment charges or not selling solar assets shows ongoing problems.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $366 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,066 loss on $10,000 · 30.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Success in this contract could boost revenues and profits in the Contract Mining segment.
Supportive ifThere is news of higher revenues or profits from the dragline services contract.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about the contract's performance.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong performance, even with expected slowdown.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $15 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $15 million.
Why it matters: New contracts will help growth in Contract Mining and support management's plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new long-term contract in Contract Mining.
Worry ifNo new long-term contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A decline in operating profit signals challenges in managing costs and revenues. This could affect future growth.
Worry ifQ3 operating profit is better than Q2's loss of $2.3 million. This is due to more solar asset impairment charges.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating profit is stable or better than Q2's loss of $2.3 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating profit shows NACCO is doing well with its business model.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, operating profit went up by over 40% from last year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 operating profit growth is less than 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Oil prices can have a big impact on revenues in the Minerals and Royalties area.
Watch forOil prices rise above $80 per barrel, boosting revenues.
Also watch forOil prices fall below $60 per barrel, leading to a revenue decline.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth improves, it could benefit NACCO's performance. This signals a shift in the market.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Worry ifEnergy sector revenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenues in this area show how well NACCO's main operations are doing.
Worry ifUtility Coal Mining revenues dropped by over 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifUtility Coal Mining revenues changed by less than 5% from last year.
Why it matters: NACCO keeps paying dividends. This shows they want to give value to shareholders. A steady dividend can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share stays at $0.2525 for the next two quarters.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.25.