NCS Multistage Holdings Inc (NCSM)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.350.00%
Close 2026-09-02 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NCSM — legal / regulatory event — Prior to the Effective Time, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and t…
Dated 2026-09-01
Prior to the Effective Time, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and traded on The Nasdaq Capital Market (“Nasdaq”) under the trading symbol “NCSM.” The Company has notified Nasdaq that the Merger had been completed and that each outstanding share of the Company Common Stock was converted into the right to receive the Merger Consideration. In addition, the Company requested that Nasdaq (i) halt trading of the Company Common Stock prior to the open of trading on the Closing Date, (ii) w…
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It also helps with future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 turns positive and exceeds $0.7 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or declines from Q1 2026 levels.
Why it matters: Growth in U.S. revenues shows NCS is doing well with its long-term plan.
Supportive ifU.S. revenues increase by at least 5% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 and Q4 2026.
Worry ifU.S. revenues decline or show no growth in the same period.
Why it matters: Growth in U.S. completions revenue shows the long-term growth plan is working. This helps the company overall.
Supportive ifU.S. completions revenue shows a year-over-year increase of at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. completions revenue declines or grows less than 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth gets better, it shows a good change in the energy sector.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $557 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,325 loss on $10,000 · 53.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These savings would help make more money. They would show the merger is valuable.
Supportive ifManagement says there will be at least $15 million in savings within 18 months.
Worry ifManagement says savings cannot be reached in the expected time.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy for NCS. Closing on time would confirm progress.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on or before September 1, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifThe merger is now delayed past September 1, 2026. This is because of regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Keeping SG&A costs low is key for better cash flow and financial control.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses reported below $18 million in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A costs are over $18 million, which shows costs are going up.
Why it matters: The merger could enhance NCS's product offerings and create cost savings. Successful integration is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe merger is complete. It has all regulatory approvals. Cost savings of at least $15 million are expected.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. It may face big delays because of regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Growth in U.S. completions is key to NCS's long-term strategy and financial health.
Supportive ifU.S. revenues increase year over year in Q3 2026, driven by Repeat Precision products.
Worry ifU.S. revenues decline year over year in Q3 2026, indicating ongoing market challenges.
Why it matters: These synergies are important for making more money after the merger. They show how well management can combine operations.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $5 million in costs within the first 6 months after the merger.
Worry ifManagement says cost savings are not on track or are delayed past 18 months.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health and efficiency. This is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive and exceeds $2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative or gets worse compared to past quarters.