NCS Multistage Holdings Inc (NCSM)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$53.350.00%
Close 2026-09-02 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NCSM — legal / regulatory event — Prior to the Effective Time, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and t…
Dated 2026-09-01
Prior to the Effective Time, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and traded on The Nasdaq Capital Market (“Nasdaq”) under the trading symbol “NCSM.” The Company has notified Nasdaq that the Merger had been completed and that each outstanding share of the Company Common Stock was converted into the right to receive the Merger Consideration. In addition, the Company requested that Nasdaq (i) halt trading of the Company Common Stock prior to the open of trading on the Closing Date, (ii) w…
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy for NCS. It could change the company's market position significantly.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on or about September 1, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or fails to close by the anticipated date.
Why it matters: Cash from operations was negative for the first half of 2026. Inventory growth and timing of payments used cash, despite a strong cash balance.
Worry ifA report after close shows cash from operations was positive for the next full quarter. Inventory was lower than on June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifA report after close shows another full quarter of negative cash from operations. Inventory was above its June 30, 2026 level.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It also helps with future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 turns positive and exceeds $0.7 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or declines from Q1 2026 levels.
Why it matters: Higher revenues show a recovery after the merger. This shows the merger strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenues exceed $38.4 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenues are below $38.4 million, it shows ongoing problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $557 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,325 loss on $10,000 · 53.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in U.S. completions revenue shows the long-term growth plan is working. This helps the company overall.
Supportive ifU.S. completions revenue shows a year-over-year increase of at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. completions revenue declines or grows less than 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth gets better, it shows a good change in the energy sector.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
Why it matters: Canada's Q2 revenue fell sharply from Q1 after spring break-up and customer delays. A rebound would show those setbacks eased.
Watch forA report after close shows Canadian revenue above the Q2 level. Deferred customer work is underway.
Also watch forA report after close shows Canadian revenue at or below Q2. It also shows more project delays or less activity.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for NCS's financial health and growth. It shows how well they operate.
Supportive ifThey had positive cash flow from operations in Q3 2026, over $1 million.
Worry ifNegative cash flow from operations in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: These synergies are important for making more money after the merger.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $5 million a year in costs within 6 months after the merger.
Worry ifCost savings are not happening, and SG&A expenses keep rising a lot.
Why it matters: Keeping SG&A costs low is key for better cash flow and financial control.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses reported below $18 million in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A costs are over $18 million, which shows costs are going up.
Why it matters: NCS cited a $15 million annual cost-savings goal within 18 months of the merger. Weatherford's updates can show progress toward that goal.
Supportive ifA Weatherford filing or results update names merger savings. It shows a path to $15 million a year within 18 months of close.
Worry ifA Weatherford update reports no merger savings or rising costs. Or, it shows a delay that pushes the $15 million goal past 18 months after close.
Why it matters: Growth in U.S. completions is key to NCS's long-term strategy and financial health.
Supportive ifU.S. revenues increase year over year in Q3 2026, driven by Repeat Precision products.
Worry ifU.S. revenues decline year over year in Q3 2026, indicating ongoing market challenges.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show how well NCSM works with Weatherford. It will also show if it grows.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenues are up compared to last year. This shows good integration and growth.
Worry ifQuarterly revenues are down compared to last year. This suggests problems with integration or the market.
Why it matters: NCS's U.S. Repeat Precision sales grew, while total U.S. revenue also rose from Q1 to Q2. The first post-close report can show if that growth lasts.
Supportive ifWeatherford reports NCS U.S. revenue above $38.4 million for the first full quarter after close, with Repeat Precision sales still growing.
Worry ifWeatherford reports lower NCS U.S. revenue than $38.4 million for a full quarter, or says Repeat Precision sales fell.
Why it matters: Getting these synergies will help profits and support the merger's purpose. It shows good integration.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve at least $7.5 million in cost savings in 18 months.
Worry ifIf cost savings do not happen, or costs rise a lot after the merger.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is more efficient. This also shows stronger finances.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin improves to at least 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Steady growth in U.S. revenues shows NCS's growth plan is working well.
Supportive ifU.S. revenues increase by at least 10% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifU.S. revenues decline or grow less than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger finances and better operations. This is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow turns positive and exceeds $1.3 million in Q3.
Worry ifIf operating cash flow stays negative or drops more in Q3.