NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $286.03. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $286 NDSN trades at 28× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $258 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 43% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.07/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $293.11 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $282.69 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $54.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $114.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $361.06 | 31.3 | 11.55 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $265.22 | 19.2 | 15.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $343.16 | 26.8 | 12.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $356.90 | 31.3 | 11.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $150.09 | 2.9 | 51.76 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $518.27 | 45.4 | 11.42 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $77.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $316.93 | 27.8 | 11.42 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $331.53 | 31.3 | 10.61 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $564.44 | 31.3 | 18.06 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $452.57 | 26.8 | 16.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $413.86 | 31.3 | 13.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $172.79 | 2.9 | 59.59 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $600.98 | 45.4 | 13.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $367.51 | 27.8 | 13.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $760.29 | 31.3 | 24.32 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $544.27 | 26.8 | 20.30 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $444.73 | 31.3 | 14.23 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $185.68 | 2.9 | 64.03 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $645.82 | 45.4 | 14.23 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $394.93 | 27.8 | 14.23 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
