Nordson Corporation (NDSN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$318.36+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NDSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NDSN — capital allocation
Dated 2026-06-03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or Obligations under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant On June 2, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Nordson Corporation (the “Company”) established a new commercial paper program (the “Program”), under which the Company may issue unsecured commercial paper notes (the “Notes”) on a private placement basis up to a maximum aggregate amount outstanding at any time of $1.2 billion. On the Effective Date, the Company also entered into commercial p…
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this EPS means strong earnings growth and success.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS of $3.15 or more shows strong performance.
Worry ifEPS below $2.95 may mean there are operational issues.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with investments and capital use.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $530 million, showing strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $467 million, indicating potential cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows strong profit expectations. It gives investors confidence in earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance is the same or has gone up.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance or gives a bad outlook.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance would show strong demand momentum and continued growth.
Supportive ifQ4 sales guidance is over $3.075 billion. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ4 sales guidance is under $3.035 billion. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help Nordson's results and future.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, moving back toward its highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: The success of this program may impact Nordson's finances and growth plans.
Watch forSuccessful issuance of commercial paper with good terms shows strong market confidence.
Also watch forFailure to issue commercial paper or bad terms shows market doubt.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance would show confidence in future growth. It signals strong demand.
Supportive ifManagement says full year revenue guidance is higher than before.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers full year revenue guidance.
Why it matters: This range will reflect Nordson's ability to maintain strong earnings. It shows how well the company is managing costs.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share confirmed between $2.95 and $3.15.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share falls below $2.95.
Why it matters: Stable operating income means good cost management. It also shows that the company works well.
Watch forOperating income is stable or higher than Q2's $197.2 million.
Also watch forOperating income drops a lot from Q2's $197.2 million.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows the company is managing costs well, which is key for long-term health.
Watch forOperating income in Q2 results does not drop from the last quarter.
Also watch forOperating income in Q2 results drops compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management believes demand will stay strong and backlog will grow.
Supportive ifSales guidance for Q4 is confirmed within the range of $3,035M to $3,075M.
Worry ifSales guidance is below $3,000M. This means demand may be weaker than expected.
Why it matters: This range shows management expects strong earnings growth. This can affect how investors feel.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance is confirmed to be between $11.80 and $12.00.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is below $11.50. This suggests a weaker outlook for earnings.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth shows steady demand. This can lead to higher sales in the future.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported at more than 35% year-over-year.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 20% year-over-year. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Keeping strong margins is key for making money. It also shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin reported at or above 32% for the quarter.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is below 30%. This means there may be cost pressures.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $199 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,415 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.