Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$14.07 → $14.07 · observed estimates
Nordson Corporation (NDSN)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$310.49-6.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NDSN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage new debt from commercial paper program | A supporting condition in Nordson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No material weakening of credit profile. | Intact | Debt causes credit rating downgrade or liquidity issues | No downgrade or liquidity issues reported New $1.2B commercial paper program established; no credit downgrade or liquidity issues reported in recent news. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$14.07 → $14.07 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a steady industrial business with an execution-led growth thesis, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains in the top half of its industry.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 15% premium, and valuation has risen notably in recent months. The expectations gap is modest and the pricing is tagged as justified, but confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near-term results have improved: revenue, diluted earnings per share, operating income, and EBITDA all rose across the periods shown, while management increased full-year revenue and adjusted earnings guidance. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but peer misses and a past deep miss remain risks; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage management credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining execution and delivering on its higher guidance. The industrial sector backdrop could improve if major peers keep beating results and raising guidance, or weaken if they begin missing and lowering guidance.
For the 1 to 3 year view, NDSN’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, while expensive valuation and a headwind from the sector limit the margin for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share target is $11.3 for fiscal 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $10.8 per share in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.73 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.3 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 20262.73 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income near $197 million in Q2 FY26 | Operating income stays near $197 million. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls well below $166 million in Q2 FY26 | Operating income: $223.092M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$197 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 20, 2026223,092,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year revenue of at least $2.93 billion | A primary condition in Nordson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.93 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.83 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $817.667M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.93 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 2026817,667,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.36B → $3.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $14.07 | $3,360,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.07 | $3,360,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.07 | $3,360,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.07 | $3,360,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $14.07 | $3,360,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.