Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CLOUDFLARE, INC. (NET)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.58-2.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.67 → 1.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NET yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful transition to AI-first operating model | The company is shifting to an AI-first model, which could boost growth. | Intact | AI transition fails to gain traction or causes revenue decline | Qualitative: AI traction confirmed via OpenAI partnership & $2.86B guidance OpenAI security partnership and upbeat $2.86B 2026 revenue outlook strongly reinforce the AI-first operating model transition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business pursuing a shift toward an agentic AI-first operating model, with profitability still a work in progress. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and operating income guidance have improved, but recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
NET is valued at a premium to peers, with optionality, or value investors assign to future opportunities, cited as a key factor. The valuation model has low confidence, and the evidence does not show that expectations are fully justified by current results. Fragility is rated low because the valuation premium is not paired with a full set of weak fundamentals and market turbulence.
Near term, revenue growth and non-GAAP operating income have risen, and management has increased its 2026 guidance for both. Execution on the AI-first shift is mixed, while a recent earnings miss and weak performance versus peers remain risks; the evidence gives a 37% probability of a near-term miss. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued delivery against revenue and profitability goals and on the operating-model transition producing results.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the recent miss and peer misses. Fed rate cuts and steadier results or guidance from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, though neither would resolve NET’s company-specific execution risks. The central swing factor is whether revenue growth and improving operating income can continue alongside the AI-first transition.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NET’s growth and improving operating income support the long-term thesis, but weak recent performance, execution uncertainty, and a valuation premium leave it dependent on continued delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CLOUDFLARE, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is $418M to $421M non-GAAP income. |
| Under Pressure |
| non-GAAP income falls below $284M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $2.81B in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in CLOUDFLARE, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.81B total revenue. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $2.14B in FY26 | Revenue: $696.061M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.81B total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026696,061,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.58 → $1.68 · observed estimates
$3.59B → $3.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.58 | $3,594,874,633 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.58 | $3,594,874,633 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.58 | $3,590,582,110 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.58 | $3,590,583,420 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.58 | $3,590,583,420 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.58 | $3,590,583,420 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.58 | $3,590,583,420 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.58 | $3,590,583,420 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.59 | $3,594,886,033 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.59 | $3,594,886,033 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.59 | $3,594,886,033 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.59 | $3,594,886,033 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.59 | $3,594,886,033 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.59 | $3,590,114,430 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.60 | $3,606,601,930 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.60 | $3,606,601,930 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.59 | $3,594,458,735 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.67 | $3,690,726,929 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,891 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,892 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.67 | $3,683,494,799 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.67 | $3,683,494,728 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.67 | $3,683,494,728 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.67 | $3,683,494,728 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.67 | $3,683,494,728 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.67 | $3,683,502,820 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,905 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,905 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,905 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,906 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,906 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.67 | $3,683,497,906 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.67 | $3,683,491,549 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.68 | $3,684,355,048 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.68 | $3,684,353,512 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.68 | $3,684,353,512 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.68 | $3,684,351,344 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.68 | $3,684,351,344 | 18 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.