NewMarket Corporation (NEU)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$885.00-1.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
NEU — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release reporting that the Company’s Board of Directors had declared a dividend of $3.00 per share of the Company’s common stock, payable on October 1, 2026, to Company shareholders of record at the close of business on September 15, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps growth and spending. This is key for future investments.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $160 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $140 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifOperating profit margin is over 22% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating profit margin falls below 20% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs could hurt profit margins in the next quarters.
Worry ifRaw material costs are rising sharply, which affects profit margins.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs are stable or lower, which helps margins.
Why it matters: Dropping below this level may show trouble in making cash flow.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q2 is reported below $120 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations in Q2 exceeds $120 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $274 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,276 loss on $10,000 · 32.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth in materials could help NewMarket do well.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up above 1% year over year.
Also watch forIf sector revenue growth stays below 1%, it shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Sales growth in specialty materials shows if the capacity expansion is effective. This segment is key for future growth.
Supportive ifSpecialty materials sales grow year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifSpecialty materials sales grow year over year by less than 10%.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share rises above $3.00 in Q4 2026.
Worry ifDividend remains at $3.00 or decreases in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: New capacity could improve supply chain strength and sales, boosting future earnings.
Supportive ifNew production capacity will start by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThere may be a delay in production growth or a stop to planned increases.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show good financial health and a promise to investors.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $3.00 per share again.
Worry ifThe Board does not declare a dividend or reduces the dividend amount.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It reflects management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase. It is now above $3.00 per share.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $3.00 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: New capacity may help the supply chain and boost revenue in specialty materials.
Supportive ifA press release says new production for specialty materials is now active.
Worry ifNo news or delays about the new capacity coming online.
Why it matters: Effective cost control can improve margins and profitability. It is vital for financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says gross profit margins will improve in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross profit margins decline or remain flat in future reports.
Why it matters: Sales growth in petroleum additives is key for steady revenue. It shows market demand.
Watch forSales of petroleum additives grew more than 5% year over year.
Also watch forSales of petroleum additives grew less than 0% compared to last year.