Reading NEWT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEWT free→Reading NEWT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEWT free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If NEWT cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 NEWT trades at 6× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted -12.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.47 (-3.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 2.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$357.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,733.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NEWT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release entitled “NewtekOne, Inc. Declares Dividends on Common Stock and Series B Preferred Shares” (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this report and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NEWT NewtekOne, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.55 for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.55 for 2026. With a net income of $13.4M in 2026-Q1 and diluted EPS of $0.43, the trajectory is aligned with the guidance.
“We remain comfortable with our 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.55.”
“The Company established an EPS guidance range for 2026 of $2.15-$2.55.”
“We remain comfortable with the first quarter and full year EPS guidance ranges.”
The company has set a target of 10% EPS growth for 2027, implying an EPS range of $2.40-$2.80.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target of 10% EPS growth for 2027, with an EPS range of $2.40-$2.80. Current financials show a net income of $13.4M and diluted EPS of $0.43 in 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on growth.
“We are establishing a target of 10% EPS growth for 2027, implying an EPS range of $2.40-$2.80.”
The company continues to maintain its dividend per share at $0.19.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its dividend per share at $0.19. Despite a net income of $13.4M in 2026-Q1, the dividend policy remains unchanged, indicating stable capital allocation.
“The company declared dividends on common stock and Series B Preferred Shares.”
“Dividend per share maintained at $0.19.”
“Dividend per share maintained at $0.19.”
“Dividend per share maintained at $0.19.”