Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Neurogene, Inc. (NGNE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.65-7.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NGNE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows toward -$5.3 or better in FY26 | A primary condition in Neurogene, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -5.31 USD per share. | Intact | EPS loss worsens beyond -5.31 USD per share in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-development company, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has reached trial and regulatory-preparation milestones, but recent financial performance is weak and the evidence snapshot has low confidence.
The valuation model shows NGNE trading at a 53.72% premium to peers, with development optionality as the main valuation driver. That suggests expectations already give meaningful weight to future potential, though the evidence says the premium is not paired with a full stack of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, operating losses are increasing as research and development spending supports NGN-401, and the company has had recent earnings misses. Cash of about $360.2 million after the July offering is expected to fund operations through the first quarter of 2029; the key development milestone is topline trial data expected in the second half of 2027.
The multi-year thesis hinges on NGN-401 trial progress and whether the planned regulatory path remains on schedule. Near term, another guidance cut or continued earnings misses would add concern, while stronger results from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum; the snapshot gives limited company-specific evidence for those sector effects.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NGNE’s case rests on clinical execution and sufficient funding, while rising losses, recent misses, and a peer valuation premium leave little room for confidence in the evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Debt issuance in July 2026 provides financial flexibility. |
| Under Pressure |
| Pipeline development stalls or financing dries up |
Qualitative: 2 consecutive earnings misses (Q1, Q2 2026) vs target of active pipeline/financing Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings misses; June 2026 debt issuance; CFO appointed to board. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stock price sustains gains near current levels or higher | A supporting condition in Neurogene, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Price remains within 0% drawdown from recent highs. | Broken | Drawdown exceeds 10% from recent highs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.51 → $-5.23 · observed estimates
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-5.46 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-5.41 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.41 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-5.51 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.41 | Unavailable | 4 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.70 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.70 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.70 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.70 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.70 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.23 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.