National Healthcare, Corp. (NHC)
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.64-1.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NHC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $219 NHC trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $161 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $469.15 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $472.37 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $52.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $112.74 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 30% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.32/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $70.45 |
| 5.6 |
| 12.02 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $155.95 | 16.9 | 9.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $184.31 | 23.2 | 7.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $105.37 | 1.1 | 98.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $81.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $213.98 | 26.9 | 7.95 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $189.95 | 23.2 | 8.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $237.19 | 16.9 | 14.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $151.05 | 1.1 | 140.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $313.68 | 16.9 | 18.58 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $192.05 | 1.1 | 179.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |