National Healthcare, Corp. (NHC)
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.64-1.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NHC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 29, 2026, NHC entered into a first amendment to the Credit Agreement (the “First Amendment”) among NHC, the Guarantors, the Lenders, and Bank of America, as administrative agent. The First Amendment increased the senior unsecured revolving credit facility under the Credit Agreement from $50 million to $75 million. The First Amendment did not modify the other terms and conditions of the Credit Agreement described in NHC’s Current Report on Fo…
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted net income shows that the company is doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted net income for Q2 2026 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifAdjusted net income growth is less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition is likely to increase earnings and cash flow. It will affect future performance.
Supportive ifManagement says the acquisition will raise earnings in the first two quarters.
Worry ifManagement says the acquisition did not raise earnings or cash flow as expected.
Why it matters: Finishing this purchase will help NHC grow and expand.
Supportive ifIf the purchase closes, NHC will run the new facilities as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close. This could happen due to regulatory issues or other problems.
Why it matters: Changes in per diem rates affect revenue. Higher rates can lead to improved financial performance.
Watch forSkilled nursing per diem rates increase by more than 4% year over year.
Also watch forSkilled nursing per diem rates decrease or stay flat year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,008 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This acquisition is expected to boost earnings and cash flow. It shows NHC's strategy to own facilities instead of leasing them.
Supportive ifEarnings report shows adjusted net income increases by more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings report shows adjusted net income increases by less than 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes may impact NHC's earnings. This is especially true for nursing homes.
Worry ifIf Medicare payment rates go up, it can lead to more income for nursing.
Less concerning ifIf Medicare payment rates go down, it can hurt income.
Why it matters: Revenue growth from acquisitions is key to NHC's growth strategy. It shows if M&A is effective.
Supportive ifQ3 net operating revenue grew more than 8.8% from last year. This growth comes from recent acquisitions.
Worry ifQ3 net operating revenue grew less than 2.2% from last year. This shows weak performance in acquisitions.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It signals financial health.
Supportive ifNHC announces a dividend increase above 4.7% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNHC maintains the dividend at $0.67 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: Growth in patient days shows demand for NHC's services. It reflects operational performance and market position.
Supportive ifSkilled nursing patient days grow year over year by more than 3% in Q3.
Worry ifSkilled nursing patient days decline year over year in Q3.