National Healthcare, Corp. (NHC)
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$207.62-2.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers
NHC — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-06
OTHER EVENTS. NHC issued a press release on November 5, 2026, announcing its quarterly common dividend. The entire press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: The sector note says growth has slowed in a maturing phase. Faster growth would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifReported three-year health care revenue growth rises from near 9% toward its prior high.
Worry ifReported three-year health care revenue growth falls further below 9%.
Why it matters: More patient days can support revenue growth. Skilled nursing patient days rose 2.8% in Q2 from a year earlier.
Supportive ifQ3 skilled nursing patient days rise at least 2% from the same quarter in 2025.
Worry ifQ3 skilled nursing patient days fall below the same quarter in 2025.
Why it matters: The report will show Q3 revenue and earnings after the 35-site deal closed. Those results can test both growth and deal progress.
Watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows adjusted earnings per share above $1.74 and revenue above $408.0 million.
Also watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows adjusted earnings per share below $1.65 or revenue below $374.9 million.
Why it matters: NHC raised its last reported quarterly dividend to $0.67. A steady or higher payment would extend that record.
Supportive ifNHC declares a next quarterly dividend of at least $0.67 per share.
Worry ifNHC declares a next quarterly dividend below $0.67 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,849 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The 35-facility deal closed in Q3 and was funded with credit. Results can show whether the added sites grow revenue while NHC manages debt.
Watch forNHC reports higher revenue after the deal closes. Current and long-term debt stay at June 30's zero balance.
Also watch forNHC reports lower revenue after the deal closes or reports new debt above zero.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted earnings per share were $1.74, up from $1.65 a year ago. A higher Q3 result would show that earnings growth continued.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 6, 2026 earnings report shows adjusted diluted earnings per share above $1.74.
Worry ifThe Nov. 6 report shows adjusted diluted earnings per share below $1.65.