Reading NHTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NHTC free→Reading NHTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NHTC free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NHTC trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.03 NHTC trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $3.11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.28x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$528.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,227.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NHTC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders of Natural Health Trends Corp. (the “Company”) held on May 7, 2026 and further described under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NHTC NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company announced a significant share repurchase program, buying back 25.5% of its outstanding shares.
The company continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
The company aims to improve its operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2025, Natural Health Trends Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as exhibit 99.1.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17 , 2026, Natural Health Trends Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a share repurchase agreement (the “Repurchase Agreement”) with the George K. Broady 2012 Irrevocable Trust and the Eleanor Jane Broady 2012 Irrevocable Trust (collectively, the “Sellers”). Pursuant to the Repurchase Agreement, the Company has repurchased 2,935,227 shares of its common stock, representing approximately 25.5% of the Company’s outstanding shares, at a purch…
Other Events. On February 17, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the repurchase described in this Current Report on Form 8-K. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Natural Health Trends Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as exhibit 99.1.