Reading NLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NLY free→Reading NLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NLY free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 NLY trades at 7× p/e, below its 9× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.75 → $0.75 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$169.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,488.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs and revenues well. This can improve how the market sees it.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 is higher than in the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 is lower than in the last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NLY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subj…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.7 as a capital allocation priority.
Focus on increasing net income as a key growth priority.
Enhance operating income as part of the company's growth objectives.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if net income growth continues. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 exceeds $282.7 million, showing continued growth.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 falls below $124.2 million, indicating a decline.
Why it matters: More net income means the company is making more money. This can help investor feelings.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 is reported higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 is reported lower than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. Cutting it could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:The company announces the dividend remains at $0.7 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.7 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may signal a shift in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below its median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above its median for the sector.