Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.25+2.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NMRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
NMRK — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-07
CEO — Barry M. Gosin: Barry M. Gosin will step down as CEO at year-end but will continue as Chairman of the operating company.
Why it matters: A slowdown in leasing fees growth could signal weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifLeasing fees growth drops below 15% in Q3.
Less concerning ifLeasing fees growth remains above 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan may change Newmark's strategy and market results.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO who aligns with Newmark's growth strategy.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO with a different strategic vision.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows management can reach its profit goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches between $656M and $694M in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $635M in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. This is true even when earnings change.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.03 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.03 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $379 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,908 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in growth, which could impact future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: If guidance goes up, it shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now over $694 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or below $656 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A clear plan for leadership will help keep stability and confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new CEO before year-end 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new CEO by December 2026.
Why it matters: An increase shows a commitment to giving back to shareholders and being healthy.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend is raised to more than $0.06 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend stays at $0.06 or goes down.