Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.94-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NMRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NMRK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
of Form 8-K and shall be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. All other information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished. DISCUSSION OF FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ABOUT NEWMARK Statements in the press release in Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K regarding Newmark that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties, which…
Why it matters: Leasing revenue rose 26.5% in Q3, led by office and industrial clients. A sharp slowdown would weaken a key growth source.
Watch forLeasing and Other Commissions revenue grows at least 15% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forLeasing and Other Commissions revenue is flat or lower year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Net origination fees fell 21.1% in Q3, while industry loan placements were weak. A recovery would ease pressure in Capital Markets.
Watch forNet fees from commercial mortgage loans started rise from a year ago in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forNet commercial mortgage origination fees fall at least 15% year over year again.
Why it matters: Newmark cut its 2026 outlook as deal timing grew less certain. Full-year results will test whether growth stays on track.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion. Adjusted EPS and EBITDA each grow by double digits.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue falls below $3.7 billion, or adjusted EPS or EBITDA fails to grow year over year.
Why it matters: Barry Gosin plans to step down as CEO at year-end and remain operating company chairman. A clear handoff can limit disruption.
Watch forNewmark names a CEO successor and confirms the handoff by year-end.
Also watch forThe CEO handoff is delayed, or Newmark reports a change to the stated plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,623 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.