NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.26-0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NODK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
NODK — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
Director — Dana J. Kaldor and Callie J. Thomas: Appointment of new non-employee directors to the Board.
Why it matters: Stable or growing investment income shows better financial health. It also means more stability.
Supportive ifInvestment income stabilizes or grows in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifInvestment income falls more in Q2 than in Q1.
Why it matters: The sector is in a growth phase. If NODK's revenue growth slows, it may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifNODK reports revenue growth below the sector median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifNODK maintains revenue growth above the sector median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A score below 100% shows better performance in underwriting and how well the company runs.
Supportive ifQ3 combined ratio falls below 100%.
Worry ifCombined ratio is still above 100%.
Why it matters: Stable income would show better results in the investment portfolio.
Supportive ifNet investment income exceeds $3 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet investment income falls below $2.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends can signal if the financial sector is slowing down. This affects investor confidence.
Worry ifNI Holdings reports revenue growth below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifNI Holdings reports revenue growth at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in North Dakota would show that management's new strategy works. It would also help overall performance.
Supportive ifNorth Dakota business shows growth exceeding 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifNorth Dakota business growth is flat or negative year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects investor confidence.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth falls below the median rate.
Less concerning ifThree-year revenue growth remains above the median rate.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS would show better profits and performance.
Supportive ifBasic EPS in Q2 exceeds $0.60.
Worry ifBasic EPS in Q2 is below $0.60.
Why it matters: A drop over 10% would show problems from leaving Non-Standard Auto. This would hurt growth.
Worry ifQ3 gross premiums written down more than 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross premiums written decline less than 10% YoY or show growth.
Why it matters: A drop over 10% would show issues in investment performance. This would hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income down more than 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifNet investment income declines less than 10% YoY or shows growth.
Why it matters: Exceeding $1 million shows strong operations. This helps increase shareholder value.
Supportive ifQ3 net income over $1 million shows strong operations.
Worry ifNet income below $1 million suggests ongoing problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $187 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,504 loss on $10,000 · 15.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.