Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NOKIA CORP (NOK)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.46-9.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.41 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NOK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth from AI and optical networking segments | Nokia is growing its AI and optical networking business with strong partnerships. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below consensus estimate of ~$22.1B in FY27 | Revenue: EUR 5.123B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue grows at least in line with consensus estimate of ~$22.1B in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20265,123,386,483 EUR · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive technology exposure, but the evidence does not support a more specific label. The thesis state is insufficient, and confidence in the overall assessment is low.
The snapshot provides no valuation level or market-expectations estimate, so it is not possible to say whether NOK is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. Fragility is rated low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, the estimated miss risk is low at 17%, but earnings surprises are trending down and the company has had a deep miss in its recent history. The risk label has risen from moderate to elevated; the snapshot does not provide enough recent financial detail to assess the multi-year fundamentals.
A more favorable setup could depend on Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology-sector peers such as CSCO, MSI, and LITE. Materially slower GDP growth, especially below 2% versus the current 2.1%, is a downside risk for this growth-sensitive sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is unresolved because recent financial evidence is limited and overall confidence is low. The main swing factors are economic growth, interest rates, and broader technology-sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Successful ramp-up of $30M chip facility investment in Pennsylvania | A supporting condition in NOKIA CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Facility investment contributes positively to revenue and margins by FY27. | Intact | Facility investment fails to generate expected revenue or margin benefits by FY27 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margin expansion driven by AI and optical networking | Nokia is growing its AI and optical networking business with strong partnerships. | Intact | Profit margins decline materially below recent levels | Net margin: 2.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve profit margins relative to recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 22, 20262.949166 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.49 → $0.43 · observed estimates
$22.16B → $22.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.49 | $22,156,437,740 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.49 | $22,172,197,560 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.49 | $22,172,197,560 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.49 | $22,177,240,780 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.41 | $22,275,449,718 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.49 | $22,148,848,150 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.49 | $22,148,848,150 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.49 | $22,148,848,150 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.49 | $22,148,848,150 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.49 | $22,148,848,150 | 8 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.50 | $22,127,868,980 | 7 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $22,171,552,253 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.41 | $22,167,218,902 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.41 | $22,179,839,648 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.41 | $22,223,360,931 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.41 | $22,243,067,639 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.41 | $22,249,708,019 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.41 | $22,249,708,019 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.41 | $22,249,708,019 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.41 | $22,249,708,019 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.41 | $22,220,691,029 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.40 | $22,134,278,643 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.40 | $22,148,257,117 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.41 | $22,210,524,866 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.41 | $22,210,524,866 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.41 | $22,227,645,178 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.41 | $22,230,690,617 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.41 | $22,230,690,617 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.41 | $22,305,303,876 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.41 | $22,350,466,320 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.41 | $22,350,466,320 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.41 | $22,399,914,402 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.41 | $22,431,745,956 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.41 | $22,429,716,393 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.41 | $22,447,390,505 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.41 | $22,476,988,300 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.41 | $22,480,739,437 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.41 | $22,480,739,437 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.41 | $22,480,739,437 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.41 | $22,462,012,430 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.41 | $22,462,012,430 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.41 | $22,441,267,591 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.41 | $22,475,630,900 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.41 | $22,513,244,793 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.41 | $22,539,708,640 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.41 | $22,546,773,009 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.41 | $22,635,261,130 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.41 | $22,635,261,130 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $22,635,261,130 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $22,635,261,130 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.41 | $22,606,335,132 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.41 | $22,620,112,883 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.41 | $22,611,855,786 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.42 | $22,582,375,230 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.42 | $22,634,932,364 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.42 | $22,634,932,364 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.42 | $22,634,932,364 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.42 | $22,634,932,364 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.42 | $22,647,804,964 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.42 | $22,624,999,347 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.42 | $22,624,999,347 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.42 | $22,624,999,347 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.43 | $22,659,941,659 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.43 | $22,659,941,659 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.43 | $22,657,596,550 | 8 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.43 | $22,655,353,577 | 8 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.