Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FiscalNote Holdings Inc (NOTE)
OTCInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.00-18.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
OTCInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NOTE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive adjusted EBITDA of at least $14 million in 2026 | It targets $14 million adjusted EBITDA. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $14 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, meaning the case depends on a struggling business improving its results. The thesis is in a watch state, with weak recent performance, losses, and volatile management execution.
The snapshot gives no valuation or market-expectations data, so whether NOTE is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It does show a downward share-price reaction and momentum falling sharply, alongside a revenue guidance cut that reflects sector softness.
Near term, revenue guidance is lower, while adjusted EBITDA has improved but came in slightly below guidance. Management is pursuing cost reductions and expects positive free cash flow on a next-twelve-month basis, but the evidence so far is mixed and operating expenses rose because of a goodwill impairment.
The multi-year thesis hinges on NOTE delivering positive free cash flow while stabilizing revenue and controlling costs. Further guidance cuts would add to execution concerns; easier interest rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but neither outcome is assured.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NOTE remains a high-risk turnaround with some cost progress but weak performance and uncertain revenue execution. The key test is whether management can meet its cash-flow goal without further weakening its outlook. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow from operations improved to $3 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Operating cash flow falls below $3 million in 2026-Q1 |
Cash from operations: $891.98M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 2026891,980,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue of at least $80 million | A primary condition in FiscalNote Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=80 million USD. | Broken | Revenue falls below $80 million in FY26 | Revenue: $19.581M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=80 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202619,581,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.01 → $-0.87 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.01 | $88,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.03 | $77,623,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.79 | $74,434,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.87 | $77,234,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.87 | $77,234,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.87 | $77,234,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.87 | $77,234,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.