Novanta (NOVT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$148.36+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOVT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOVT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-27
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On July 22, 2026, to fund the Transaction, Intermediate Parent borrowed $616.0 million in the aggregate under its revolving credit facility and delayed draw term loan facility under its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) and funded the remaining consideration with cash on hand. Borrowings under the revolving credit facility and delayed draw te…
Why it matters: Operating income trends will show if Novanta can make more money while growing.
Worry ifOperating income increases from $27.5 million in Q1 2026 to above $30 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income drops further from $27.5 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate helps show Novanta's revenue growth and management's plans.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth of 6% or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 6% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A high EBITDA margin means good cost control. It also means the company makes money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 22% in Q3. This shows strong efficiency.
Worry ifIf the adjusted EBITDA margin drops below 22%, costs may be rising. This could mean less efficiency.
Why it matters: Keeping a low leverage ratio is important for financial health after the deal.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio is below 2.7x after closing the Riverpoint deal.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio is above 2.7x after the deal closes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $454 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,697 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show if Novanta can expand into high-growth surgical markets. It could boost revenue and margins.
Supportive ifThe deal closes in Q3 2026 as planned. There are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or blocked because of regulatory issues.
Why it matters: This guidance shows expected profit growth. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is over $77 million. This confirms strong operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is below $74 million. This shows some operational problems.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth rate would show strong market demand. It would also show good execution.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth is above 9% for Q3. This shows strong market traction.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth is below 9%. This may mean market or execution problems.
Why it matters: This guidance shows strong growth expectations. It also shows how well the acquisition is doing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is $300 million to $304 million. This means over 21% growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is below $300 million. This suggests weaker performance than expected.
Why it matters: This number is important for understanding the effects of growth plans and the Riverpoint deal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA of $58 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $58 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The lawsuit could affect Novanta's reputation and finances. Watching this will help see risks.
Worry ifThe lawsuit goes well for Novanta.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit leads to a big financial penalty or damage to reputation.
Why it matters: The acquisition is likely to increase revenue and margins. It supports growth plans.
Supportive ifRiverpoint Medical adds at least $0.18 to $0.25 to adjusted EPS in 2027.
Worry ifRiverpoint Medical does not help adjusted EPS in 2027.
Why it matters: This report will show if Novanta is meeting its growth goals. Investors want to see strong revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.