Novanta (NOVT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$131.82-9.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOVT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 49.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 31 industry peers
NOVT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-27
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On July 22, 2026, to fund the Transaction, Intermediate Parent borrowed $616.0 million in the aggregate under its revolving credit facility and delayed draw term loan facility under its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) and funded the remaining consideration with cash on hand. Borrowings under the revolving credit facility and delayed draw te…
Why it matters: Management said Riverpoint would lift gross and EBITDA margins at once. Falling margins would challenge that claim.
Supportive ifNovanta reports higher adjusted gross and EBITDA margins after the deal. It links the gains to Riverpoint.
Worry ifNovanta reports lower adjusted gross or EBITDA margins after the deal. Or it says Riverpoint did not raise them.
Why it matters: Novanta set Q3 revenue guidance at $300 million to $304 million. A result below the low end would break that outlook.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $300 million, the bottom of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is $300 million or more, within or above the stated range.
Why it matters: Organic growth rose from 3% in Q1 to 9.3% in Q2. Another strong result would support Novanta's growth plan.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth is at least 9% in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 3%, the Q1 2026 rate.
Why it matters: Novanta tied this EPS gain to its Riverpoint deal. Results in that range would support the deal's earnings case.
Supportive ifNovanta reports that Riverpoint adds $0.18 to $0.25 to adjusted EPS in 2027.
Worry ifNovanta reports Riverpoint adds less than $0.18 to adjusted EPS in 2027, or reports no gain.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $455 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,511 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The plan aims to cut trade risk and lower costs, but it has raised working capital. Completion with lower cash use would show progress.
Watch forNovanta says the regional manufacturing plan is complete. It reports no more working capital increase tied to the plan.
Also watch forNovanta says the plan is not complete, or reports another working capital increase tied to it.