NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.34+8.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
Why it matters: Core RNS sales drive the outlook, without IGE revenue. Results below the range would weaken the growth case.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue lands at or above $99 million and no higher than $101.5 million.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue falls below $99 million, or management cuts its guidance range.
Why it matters: Management kept its gross margin range at 81.5% to 82.5%. A miss would point to weaker margins than planned.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 non-GAAP gross margin is below 81.5%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 non-GAAP gross margin is 81.5% or higher.
Why it matters: The loss outlook improved, but NeuroPace still expects a full-year loss. A larger loss could add pressure to cash use.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss is greater than $9.5 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss is $9.5 million or less.
Why it matters: More RNS sales and prescribers would support growth in the current business. Slower growth could challenge the raised outlook.
Watch forOn November 3, RNS revenue grows at least 20% year over year, or active prescribers rise from the prior quarter.
Also watch forOn November 3, RNS revenue grows less than 20% year over year, or active prescribers fall from the prior quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $463 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,655 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.