NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.90+1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into NeuroPace's financial health and future outlook. This is crucial for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive earnings or revenue growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows losses or declining revenue.
Why it matters: Keeping high gross margins is important for making money and for investor trust.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin for Q2 2026 stays above 81.5%.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin falls below 81.5%. This shows there are cost pressures.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance for 2026 shows strong growth momentum. It reflects management's confidence in the business.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was between $99 million and $101 million. This confirms the raised guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $99 million. This shows possible problems with growth expectations.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means improved cost control and efficiency. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 improves to less than -$8.5 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 remains worse than -$9.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $478 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,318 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New data could strengthen the case for FDA approval and impact future revenue from the IGE indication.
Supportive ifNew positive data from the NAUTILUS trial shows a big drop in seizures.
Worry ifNew data from the NAUTILUS trial shows no improvement or bad results.
Why it matters: The FDA's response will show if NeuroPace can move forward with its IGE indication expansion.
Watch forThe FDA approves the new PMA Supplement for epilepsy that has no known cause.
Also watch forThe FDA denies the new PMA Supplement and asks for more data.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the sector. This would be important for NeuroPace's future.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth for NeuroPace exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth for NeuroPace remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would signal stronger growth expectations. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue in 2026 to be over $101 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers revenue guidance for 2026 to under $99 million.
Why it matters: The FDA's response will clarify the path for expanding the RNS System's use. Approval could boost revenue potential.
Supportive ifThe FDA shows a clear path for approval. This follows the Submission Issue Request.
Worry ifFDA maintains that the PMA Supplement is not approvable, requiring more data.
Why it matters: Higher revenue would show growth in the core RNS business. It would also support management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported above $22.8 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $22.8 million.