Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$257.26-7.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.89 → 11.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NPO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $8.85 in 2026 | The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to $8.85-$9.50. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $8.50 for 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial business, with recent strength in revenue, profitability, and its Advanced Surface Technologies segment. The long-term thesis is intact, though the risk label has risen to elevated and the evidence confidence is medium.
NPO is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is modest, so the premium appears supported by current performance, but it leaves the thesis sensitive to execution setbacks.
Near-term results have been strong: management raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and recent quarterly revenue and segment profitability grew. The main near-term risk is a guidance reversal, while the industrial-sector backdrop is a headwind and recent peer misses add caution.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth, margin improvement, and strength in Advanced Surface Technologies. A guidance cut after the recent increase could damage credibility; continued strong results from industrial bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
NPO’s operating progress keeps the long-term thesis intact, but its expensive valuation and elevated risks make continued execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rose with gross profit up 10% and operating income up 4.1%. |
| Intact |
| gross profit growth falls below 5% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth of at least 4% | Profit rose with gross profit up 10% and operating income up 4.1%. | Intact | operating income growth falls below 2% next year | Operating income growth: 54.77% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4% growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202654.767726 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 10% YoY | A primary condition in EnPro Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 22.4% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202622.400558 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.56 → $11.18 · observed estimates
$1.38B → $1.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.56 | $1,375,300,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.56 | $1,375,348,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.88 | $1,418,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.89 | $1,418,557,332 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.18 | $1,437,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.