NRG Energy (NRG)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$119.02+6.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $119 NRG trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $176 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $162–$226. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $210.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $213.72 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $59.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $86.79 | 52.9 | 1.64 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$162.00 – $226.00 (median $210.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-08-19
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 25% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.81/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $182.52 |
| 17.6 |
| 10.37 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $454.68 | 2.9 | 156.25 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $401.17 | 59.0 | 6.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $38.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $150.81 | 23.1 | 6.54 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $22.81 | 2.9 | 7.84 | guidance | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $30.73 | 59.0 | 0.52 | Analyst | low |