NRG Energy (NRG)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$137.44-0.41%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $137.44. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $138 NRG trades at 20× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $141 fair value is roughly in line with the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $154–$210. Note: our $141 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($154–$210). Not investment advice.
$154.00 – $210.00 (median $163.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 94% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 20.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.85/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $163.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $60.92 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $217.49 | 24.4 | 8.90 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $172.03 | 24.4 | 7.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $472.86 | 3.0 | 155.69 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $350.42 | 49.8 | 7.04 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $134.54 | 19.1 | 7.04 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $175.80 | 24.4 | 7.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $595.68 | 24.4 | 24.38 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $18.46 | 24.4 | 0.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $34.43 | 3.0 | 11.34 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $37.60 | 49.8 | 0.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $14.44 | 19.1 | 0.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1166.08 | 24.4 | 47.72 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.