Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NRG Energy (NRG)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$80.55-3.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.07 → 10.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $8.9 in 2026 | A primary condition in NRG Energy's published investment case. The stated target is ~$8.9. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $7.9 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$8.9. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20262.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Reaffirming 2026 Guidance NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.” “Reaffirming 2026 Guidance NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recent-performance-led utility investment with an intact long-term thesis, not a clear turnaround. Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and risk is elevated.
NRG is expensive versus peers despite a valuation measure that points to it being cheap versus peers, so the valuation signals are mixed. The expectations gap is negative, while priced-in fragility is low and tagged as justified, meaning the evidence does not show that the market is fully pricing in the combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near term, reaffirmed 2026 guidance and strong recent financial performance support the thesis, but consecutive earnings misses and a 31% estimated miss probability point to execution risk. Management has made substantial progress on its planned repurchases and dividends, while the Texas data center power strategy remains early and subject to final documentation and approvals.
The main near-term test is whether NRG maintains its reaffirmed guidance; a cut would signal weaker delivery. Over the multi-year view, execution on the data center strategy matters, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NRG’s strong recent performance keeps the long-term thesis intact, but fragile earnings quality, recent misses, and mixed valuation signals make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow near $2.9 billion in 2026 | Revenue is expected near $5.8 billion in 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $2.1 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $779M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.9B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026779,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable leadership and execution under new CEO | NRG Energy is growing with new power plants and a CEO focused on growth. | Intact | Significant leadership disruption or strategy reversal | Qualitative: Stable leadership confirmed CEO transition completed April 2026. Board appointment May 2026. No strategy reversal or leadership disruption reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $5.8 billion in 2026 | Revenue is expected near $5.8 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $5.3 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $7.481B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.8B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20267,481,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Reaffirming 2026 Guidance NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.” “Reaffirming 2026 Guidance NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.” Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Return $1 billion to shareholders via buybacks in 2026 | The company plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through buybacks. | Intact | Buybacks fall short of $800 million by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.32 → $10.24 · observed estimates
$35.69B → $34.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.32 | $35,686,549,931 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.51 | $36,283,939,210 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.34 | $35,686,549,931 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.49 | $36,283,383,650 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.32 | $35,655,631,042 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.49 | $36,283,383,650 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.32 | $35,655,631,042 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.30 | $36,210,820,870 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.22 | $35,634,764,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.30 | $36,210,820,870 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.22 | $35,634,764,932 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.22 | $35,634,764,932 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.22 | $35,634,764,932 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.50 | $38,064,177,510 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.16 | $38,524,736,200 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.16 | $38,524,736,200 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.16 | $38,524,736,200 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.93 | $36,246,589,390 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.07 | $36,562,514,326 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.07 | $36,562,514,326 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.07 | $36,562,514,326 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.07 | $36,562,514,326 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.07 | $36,562,514,326 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.08 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.07 | $35,329,241,179 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,103 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.07 | $35,329,292,102 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.02 | $35,249,662,891 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.02 | $35,249,662,891 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.89 | $35,249,662,891 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.85 | $35,249,662,891 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.63 | $35,208,262,891 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.71 | $34,994,249,992 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.71 | $34,994,249,992 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.71 | $34,994,249,992 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.71 | $34,994,249,992 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.71 | $34,994,249,992 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.44 | $34,939,359,009 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.24 | $34,162,713,078 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.