NRG
NRG EnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NRG has a mixed signal label with a composite score of -9.2. The company momentum score decreased significantly by 28.7 points to -46.1, while the valuation score increased by 16.6 points to 53.9, resulting in a change of the valuation label from 'full' to 'fair'. The top drivers influencing these scores include macroeconomic factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.20
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.60 (-4.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.9% above current price.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 financial guidancegrowthbehind5% progress
5/6: “NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. NRG reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with a revenue range of $5325M to $5825M. Despite the reaffirmation, the company reported an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving these targets.
- 2.CEO transitiontalentmixed33% progress
4/30: “Appointment of Mr. Gaudette as Chief Executive Officer, effective April 30, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The CEO transition to Mr. Gaudette was completed on April 30, 2026. This leadership change comes amid an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, suggesting potential challenges in strategic execution.
- 3.Announce share buybackcapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “NRG announced a share buyback program on April 28, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. NRG announced a share buyback program on April 28, 2026, as part of its capital allocation strategy. However, the financials show a negative cash flow from operations of -$1.057B in 2025-Q4, indicating potential constraints in executing this buyback effectively.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 51%; 252d 49%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.12 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 18/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 12/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 48
Company momentum fell by 28.7 points (from -17.4 to -46.1).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 33
Valuation rose by 16.6 points (from 37.3 to 53.9).
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of May 8, 2026, NRG's company momentum score fell by 28.7 points, changing from -17.4 to -46.1. The valuation score rose by 16.6 points, increasing from 37.3 to 53.9, and the valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'. The overall signal is now labeled as "mixed."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 financial guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04NRG is reaffirming its financial guidance for 2026, maintaining its previously set targets.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. NRG reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with a revenue range of $5325M to $5825M. Despite the reaffirmation, the company reported an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving these targets.
5%CEO/CFO:“NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Initiating 2026 NRG standalone guidance in line with the Company's long-term growth targets.”
- #2
CEO transition
TalentNew since 2026-05-04NRG has appointed Mr. Gaudette as the new CEO, effective April 30, 2026.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The CEO transition to Mr. Gaudette was completed on April 30, 2026. This leadership change comes amid an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, suggesting potential challenges in strategic execution.
33%CEO/CFO:“Appointment of Mr. Gaudette as Chief Executive Officer, effective April 30, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Appointment of Mr. Gaudette as Chief Executive Officer, effective April 30, 2026.”
- #3
Announce share buyback
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04NRG announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. NRG announced a share buyback program on April 28, 2026, as part of its capital allocation strategy. However, the financials show a negative cash flow from operations of -$1.057B in 2025-Q4, indicating potential constraints in executing this buyback effectively.
35%CEO/CFO:“NRG announced a share buyback program on April 28, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“NRG announced a share buyback program on April 28, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
59 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NRG NRG Energy | -9.2 | fair | elevated |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74 - 2026-04-309d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Mr. Gaudette as Chief Executive Officer As previously disclosed in the Original 8-K, the Board of Directors of the Company appointed Mr. Gaudette as President of the Company, effective January 6, 2026, and as Chief Executive Officer, effective April 30, 2026. Biographical and other information about Mr. Gaudette is included in the Co…
executive changeneutralscore 65 - 2026-04-2811d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2031 and Senior Notes due 2034 and 2036 On April 28, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), sold and issued $500 million aggregate principal amount of 4.955% senior secured first lien notes due 2031 (the “Secured Notes”) pursuant to the terms of a purchase agreement, dated April 14, 2026, among the Company, the guarantors named therein and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representative o…
capital allocationpositivescore 51 - 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosures under
capital allocationnegativescore 40
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.